...forecasts from those models indicate that their deterministic model solutions are part of a wide spectrum of possible tracks for Margot. The ECMWF track ensemble, for instance, has approximately 27 degrees of latitude spread between members at 120 h. We don't have a clear reason to favor any one solution at this time, so the NHC forecast is near the multi-model consensus. It is possible that large track adjustments will be needed to future NHC forecasts.
Anyone seeing another system behind Lee threatening New England? I’m going to Boston in a couple of weeks and hate to have to cancel due to Lee or whatever might come behind it.
Okay, the current discussion helps. It doesn't sound like Lee has any direct effect.This is pretty, but the two centers are still rather distant. Does this proximity have anything to do with the challenges of forecasting Margot's future or is that from something else?
A general northward motion should continue over the next day or so before the track forecast becomes very challenging. Margot will then become caught in weak steering currents, with the global models showing a blocking ridge developing to the north of the cyclone by late week into the weekend. There remain notable differences between the GFS and ECMWF with regards to the strength and position of this ridge, which has large implications in the longer-range track of Margot, but there has been some tightening of the model consensus since this morning. This supports the storm making a gradual clockwise loop between 36-72 hrs as the ridge initially builds north of the cyclone and then slides off to the east. By 120 hrs, the storm will likely begin accelerating off to the northeast as it gets picked up by the westerlies, but the overall track forecast confidence remains low given the model spread late in the forecast period....