2023 Tropical Weather

[Austin Dawg]

I'd really like to know who thought it was a good idea to go ahead with the Padres games in San Diego and the Post Malone concert at Glen Helen...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Invest 90L is a 1000mb surface low. This is very funny.

 

[akt1985]

For the younger folks

 

[Clancy]

Atlantic is rather active. System in the Gulf of Mexico bears watching.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Welp, next few months will be all kinds of hectic with school and TWO different dentist appointments (in which I expect teeth to be pulled), guess this just adds more chaos to the pile

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The Atlantic is BUSY! We have Tropical Storm Emily, Frank, and Gert out there now.

Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico has a likely probability of becoming a named storm before hitting southern Texas tomorrow morning.

Invest 92L in the Eastern Atlantic has a likely probability of becoming a named system.

 

[Clancy]

The Atlantic is BUSY! We have Tropical Storm Emily, Frank, and Gert out there now.

Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico has a likely probability of becoming a named storm before hitting southern Texas tomorrow morning.

Invest 92L in the Eastern Atlantic has a likely probability of becoming a named system.

We're lucky the GOM system won't be staying out over water for very long.

 

[JPWX]

We're lucky the GOM system won't be staying out over water for very long.

Yeah. I don't expect there to be much if any significant noticeable change in water temperatures after this moves through. If it were a slow mover, that would be a different story.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Models show additional areas to watch in the long term. A disturbance currently south of Central America could encourage development around the Yucatán Peninsula this weekend into early next week. This needs to be watched closely for its greater potential of a U.S. impact. There’s also a disturbance in East Africa that could develop late next week in the East Atlantic.

 

[JayF]

With the number of storms currently in the Atlantic and Gulf, would you prefer me to split these out into different threads?

 

[JBishopwx]

Think we should at least have a separate one for PTC 9Harold and one for Franklin but just my opinion

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JBishopwx]

As Tyler mention above, Euro has been pretty consistent on a system late next week.

 

[Casuarina Head]

To all this I answer with the thoughts of retired NHC director Dr. Neil Frank:

“They seem to be naming storms a lot more than they used to,” said Frank, who directed the hurricane center from 1974 to 1987 and is now chief meteorologist for KHOU-TV. “This year (2007—ed.), I would put at least four storms in a very questionable category, and maybe even six.” … their central pressure — another measure of intensity — suggested they actually remained depressions or were non-tropical systems. … Insurance companies use…trends to set homeowners’ rates. … Before satellites, scientists had few ways to tell the difference between tropical systems and non-tropical storms. As a result, some non-tropical storms probably were named.

More from the same source:

He states that the first six tropical storms this year would not have been counted in his time. Nowadays the NHC rushes to name a storm, simply based on wind speeds. His team would have waited until the central pressure dropped to confirm that it really was a tropical storm and not just a thunderstorm. This often explains why named storms are often so short-lasting now.

Simply look at storms like Harold and other “shorties” and compare with previous tropical storms from the 1980s and early ‘90s. These systems are basically glorified tropical waves whose gale-force winds are related to transient convection and most likely do not reflect sustained, one-minute values at standard elevation over water, much less land. Unfortunately, our rather scanty records are becoming even less reliable due to changes in standards for classification since the late ‘90s. Given that HURDAT is used to assign insurance-premiums, artificial changes should be quite alarming.

The problem with statistics these days is that due to political pressure from Congress NOAA is forced to inflate the number of storms in order to avoid privatisation and/or reductions in funding. The reason: the whole AGW scam (or rather the assertion that “climate change means more and stronger storms”) and its profiteering beneficiaries. I deeply respect the scientists at the NHC who are nevertheless forced to labour under these circumstances. They know that the whole thing is fraudulent yet are being pressured to skewer official records for the benefit of big financial interests and insurance companies.

I really wish we could return to the days of old-school specialists such as Dr. Neil Frank et al.—when big money had not yet totally corrupted science via Congress.

Anyway, most storms with MSLPs of > 1001 mb since the late ‘90s probably should not have been named, especially if they lasted at most a few days.

 

[JBishopwx]

Think there are some small factors come into play when nameing storms, such as insurance clames, but more importantly, more people tend to react/pay more attention to a name system. Case in point, we had a huge flood flooding event in Lousiania a tropical wave, and it didn't got label past an invest, if that. Just my thoughts which isn't worth much

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

12z Euro Ensemble swath of tracks.

 

[JPWX]

Meanwhile.... in the Gulf/NW Caribbean

 

[Clancy]

NHC closely eyeing the system forecasted to come out of the Pacific.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure, originating along the East Pacific
coast of Central America, is forecast to move into northwestern
Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter into early next week, and a tropical
depression could form while it moves slowly northward, entering the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[JBishopwx]

Euro has been pretty consistent. NHC is now up to 60%