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Severe Weather 2018

This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%
  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .

Taylor Campbell

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PerryW Project Supporter
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501
Location
Wedowee, AL
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SKYWARN® Volunteer
We are coming up on the period quick, and there have been some operational runs of varies models with a decent look for severe weather. However, ensembles, and magnitude\timing differ so there’s not an overly confident solution. There are a lot of moving pieces to this pattern. A system that is currently getting its act together that will impact the eastern US the next few days, southern stream energy coming through mid week, and pacific energy coming late week into early next week. A lot to be determined still, but I like the potential that mid level lapse rates may be better than what we have seen in awhile.
 
Messages
714
Location
Harvest, Alabama
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Storm Mapping User
trying say... there may be to much shear to keep cells going... like rip them apart? I have seen that happen
In this case its possible.

This is actually a case where the trough flattening out would help us out some. Its been the inverse that's been true the last couple years its seemed, but in this case its so jacked up that a bit of a deamplification would actually assist the threat level some.

I call it the bodybuilder analogy because I try to go to the gym and once I have more time and I'm not held down by term projects and finals I'm going to put some serious effort into doing so. You don't want to be a stick with no muscle mass (can't generate enough forcing), but you also don't want to go overboard and be insanely jacked to the point to where you're literally destroying your body (ripping cells apart as they form. Its a balancing act and in this case the trough is actually too jacked up. Granted this has a lot to do with that ridge to the E - we need that to go down some so we can get this trough to flatten out.
 
Messages
2,130
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I don’t think instability availablilty is as much of an issue as forcing is so strong we get an explosion of convection in the warm sector. Euro verbatim would be a severe weather event for Dixie.
 
Messages
219
Location
jackson tennessee
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SKYWARN® Volunteer
Gfs is starting to cave to the euro on severe wx threat ... Spc already has a area highlighted Friday ... look for that threat extend further northeast Saturday ... this is a perfect cool weather season severe threat driven by mainly shear values ... super cells embedded in qlcs seems likely ...
 

Taylor Campbell

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
501
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
Gfs is starting to cave to the euro on severe wx threat ... Spc already has a area highlighted Friday ... look for that threat extend further northeast Saturday ... this is a perfect cool weather season severe threat driven by mainly shear values ... super cells embedded in qlcs seems likely ...
I created a thread for the first severe weather threat http://talkweather.com/index.php?threads/severe-weather-threat-11-30-12-2-18.1136/. Another one may needed for a threat next week. Stay tune! It’s about to get busy.
 

Fred Gossage

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
101
Location
Pell City, AL
Gfs is starting to cave to the euro on severe wx threat ... Spc already has a area highlighted Friday ... look for that threat extend further northeast Saturday ... this is a perfect cool weather season severe threat driven by mainly shear values ... super cells embedded in qlcs seems likely ...
Excruciatingly too early to even try to guess at storm mode yet. We don't know how far inland better low-level moisture will go. We don't know the orientation and geometry of the upper trough, which has a STRONG correlation to convective mode. This could be a QLCS with a wind and lower-end tornado threat, it could be a swarm of supercells with long-track tornadoes, or anywhere in between... and there is believable model support for that whole spectrum of solutions.
 
Messages
207
Location
Madison, WI
So no one on any forum is talking about SPC's Day 4 outlook for Florida. Is there actually something to this or is it just them being bored and looking for something, anything to talk about in the forecast?
 
Messages
219
Location
jackson tennessee
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SKYWARN® Volunteer
So no one on any forum is talking about SPC's Day 4 outlook for Florida. Is there actually something to this or is it just them being bored and looking for something, anything to talk about in the forecast?
Think what it really boils down to is this.... no one really cares bout Florida ... lol
 
Messages
207
Location
Madison, WI
I'm curious why the GFS and NAM (and this event is no exception, although the NAM has been trending upward) almost always depict a giant CAPE hole over peninsular Florida? For example they will show an area of 2-3K j/kg over the Gulf, which sharply drops to 1,000 j/kg or less over the peninsula, then back up again over the open Atlantic.
 
Messages
244
Location
Moody, AL
I'm curious why the GFS and NAM (and this event is no exception, although the NAM has been trending upward) almost always depict a giant CAPE hole over peninsular Florida? For example they will show an area of 2-3K j/kg over the Gulf, which sharply drops to 1,000 j/kg or less over the peninsula, then back up again over the open Atlantic.
I've never really paid attention to it, but I'd think it would be due to the dewpoint differences over open water compared to over the peninsula. Take tomorrow afternoon for example

 

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