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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

JPWX said:
For the record, the current dewpoints are in the low 70s compared to what the 13z HRRR, 12z NAM, and 12z 3km NAM initialized at.
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Thank you @JPWX I feel like we are following the models to closely right now. Like i said the environment is relatively unchanged if not more potent. observations through satellite imagery and such is key for the discreet setup
 
Synoptically probably not the same but this reminds me a bit like March 25, 2021 with the epicenter of the bad weather being more north and west of where it was on 3/25.

Will it end up being as bad as that day? Remains to be seen.
 
JPWX said:
For the record, the current dewpoints are in the low 70s compared to what the 13z HRRR, 12z NAM, and 12z 3km NAM initialized at.
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Yeah, I noticed that as well, the HRRR downtrend might be based (at least in part) on it not initializing the current environment correctly. Everything in the surface and satellite obs (i.e. very robust dewpoints and the clear skies over the ArkLaMiss) suggests we've still got a potentially serious problem on our hands in terms of OWS storms. A good reminder that it's the actual atmospheric conditions that determine what will happen, not the HRRR, and when they conflict you should always trust your eyes, not the models.
 
South AL Wx said:
And just reading the discussion, it doesn't seem that they're quite as bullish as earlier, at least on the violent tornado potential. The earlier discussion mentioned EF3+, while the current discussion mentions EF2-3.
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@South AL Wx @CheeselandSkies @andyhb What is the likeliest reason for this? Synoptically the setup seems to be just as impressive as ever.

What is the biggest issue that is preventing an outbreak of multiple EF2+ supercells?
 
I'd use HRRR for a reference, but I wouldn't rely on it 100%. It hasn't been perfect in previous severe threats this season. We will likely see supercells form in the moderate risk area, but it will likely become an intense QLCS tonight. We are definitely in "nowcast" mode. We need to watch soundings, observations, and trends.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Well as noted in a couple of posts above, the HRRR didn't initialize the moisture correctly, thus maybe it had a little more inhibition over the warm sector.
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Given current conditions, shouldn’t SPC upgrade to a HIGH at 1630Z? Synoptics and LL thermodynamics look extremely potent to me. I see solid EF4+ potential.

Low amplitude, negative tilt, diurnal heating, robust SRH...other than insolation there really isn’t a major impediment to a significant outbreak, is there?
 
mattdanielwx said:
I'd use HRRR for a reference, but I wouldn't rely on it 100%. It hasn't been perfect in previous severe threats this season. We will likely see supercells form in the moderate risk area, but it will likely become an intense QLCS tonight. We are definitely in "nowcast" mode. We need to watch soundings, observations, and trends.
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I assume JAN and maybe SHV are sending up 18z launches right?
 
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LOL the 14Z HRRR now has the discrete sups firing in LA and AR, congealing into a QLCS by the time they cross the river. A couple of the overnight runs had an intense discrete supercell tracking from N MS into S TN (almost like a 12/23/15-type track) but that is long gone. The HRRR has really been all over the place with this one.

On a couple of past occasions I've seen it be almost spookily accurate with the location and timing of a tornadic supercell almost from the first run that was in range, but this is not going to be one of those events.

I think it has to do with the fact that we're dealing with (the potential of) open warm-sector supercell development, which is triggered by very subtle features the timing and location of which is very difficult to pin down, where as the ones it really nailed were storms forced by easily trackable synoptic features like a triple point/warm front. Also, maybe something was tweaked in the model after 5/20/19 to prevent a repeat of its massive overproduction of simulated warm-sector supercells prior to that event, but the pendulum could have swung a little too far in the other direction.
 
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