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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

CheeselandSkies said:
10Z HRRR actually portrays the would-be supercells across MS struggling and dying off.

Still too much uncertainty for a high risk, IMO.
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Yeah, the last couple of HRRR runs have been a lot less aggressive with the prefrontal convection. There are a few cells ahead of the main line on the 11z run but they get overrun by the main line before they reach I-55. Not sure if it's a genuine downtrend or just a couple of wonky runs but still some inconsistency in what had been the most aggressive solution.
 
warneagle said:
Yeah, the last couple of HRRR runs have been a lot less aggressive with the prefrontal convection. There are a few cells ahead of the main line on the 11z run but they get overrun by the main line before they reach I-55. Not sure if it's a genuine downtrend or just a couple of wonky runs but still some inconsistency in what had been the most aggressive solution.
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I'm thinking it maybe the transition form the long range to short range and it's wonky like you said lol
 
11Z was actually a pretty strong upswing back to more prefrontal supercells, although they do have a little less time before getting eaten by the line. Even has a few more quasi-discrete elements within the line across southern AR/northern LA, as well. So I think the 10Z run was just a hiccup - for now.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
11Z was actually a pretty strong upswing back to more prefrontal supercells, although they do have a little less time before getting eaten by the line. Even has a few more quasi-discrete elements within the line across southern AR/northern LA, as well. So I think the 10Z run was just a hiccup - for now.
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Yeah there are at least some cells popping but not quite as "supercell go brrr" as it was at like 07-08z
 
CheeselandSkies said:
...and rightly so, in light of the most aggressive CAM solution backing off (somewhat).
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And just reading the discussion, it doesn't seem that they're quite as bullish as earlier, at least on the violent tornado potential. The earlier discussion mentioned EF3+, while the current discussion mentions EF2-3.
 
Sounding off the 12z HRRR on the Monroe/Itawamba County line.
 

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tornado examiner said:
How likely is it for the event to fall apart now?
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I wouldn't say likely, but certainly on the table moreso than a few hours ago. I think that dry pocket/low PWATs SPC mentioned in both their outlooks is a wild card that I wasn't really aware of until that first outlook. Could stifle warm sector convection if the low-level mass response is any less robust than previously thought.

Certainly wouldn't count on it at this stage, though.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 
I'm not sold on these last few runs of less discrete. Maybe the next few hours or so will help things out. Hunch is that things will swing back in the other way how it was.
 
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