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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

With uncertainties at present, will have to wait and see how model agreement pans out (or doesn't). GFS has been pretty consistent over the last several runs with modest but not insignificant instability over large parts of MS/AL/GA on Thursday afternoon (18Z pictured for the 00, 06 and 12Z runs). Would be plenty for a winter Dixie event if directional shear were to accompany.
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Clancy said:
With uncertainties at present, will have to wait and see how model agreement pans out (or doesn't). GFS has been pretty consistent over the last several runs with modest but not insignificant instability over large parts of MS/AL/GA on Thursday afternoon (18Z pictured for the 00, 06 and 12Z runs). Would be plenty for a winter Dixie event if directional shear were to accompany.
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Directional shear is good, with this event; just the low level shear is questionable. Depending on the low level shear you'll end up with supercells with damaging winds or supercells that can become tornadic. A lot of the parameters mesh pretty well for your low topped supercell events in Alabama. 1000j of SBCAPE is almost your typical amount for tornadic events in Alabama. Everything meshes semi well, there not being a few models runs of continuity is the issue. Seems like somewhere in the deep south a relatively robust risk area will setup, shifted from Alabama Mississippi state line to south Alabama to now the Georgia Alabama state line.
 
At least here in Smithville, MS, we are forecasted to have a near 20 degree temperature difference between Thursday and Friday. Near 70 Thursday and upper 40s Friday. If you are looking for a severe weather threat during Winter months, look for a temperature difference of near 20 or greater. It works some during the Spring months too but not much.
 
18z NAM valid at midnight Thursday. Showing 60 dewpoints already surging pretty far North. Any slowing of this system would definitely ramp up the threat. I wouldn't worry about CAPE values at this range. You can pretty much see where the dryline would be back in Texas.
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The NAM is usually always slower.

Those were some huge changes on the GFS overnight with the shift towards faster and the worst threat area east to areas from central/south Alabama into central/south Georgia. The GFS lost the better low level jet on the 00/06z runs, but brought it back on the 12z today. Comparatively, the EURO doesn’t have that much low level shear.
 
JPWX said:
At least here in Smithville, MS, we are forecasted to have a near 20 degree temperature difference between Thursday and Friday. Near 70 Thursday and upper 40s Friday. If you are looking for a severe weather threat during Winter months, look for a temperature difference of near 20 or greater. It works some during the Spring months too but not much.
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I HAVE noticed a drop in temp after severe events. Good thing to keep an eye on
 
KevinH said:
What about the OTHER “parameters”?

Love your comments. Keep them coming.
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Not many are useful right now as the Nam isn't in full range, but the consensus is that the Nam shows better evolution for a robust weather event for the deep south. Slower and further south when ejecting. Basically the two things that need to happen to escalate the threat
 
The 18z nam is also flatter on 500mb which is a sneaky way for better directional shear depending on the position of the low. And fast shortwave travel which is key to the threat being more linear and less low level shear.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Not many are useful right now as the Nam isn't in full range, but the consensus is that the Nam shows better evolution for a robust weather event for the deep south. Slower and further south when ejecting. Basically the two things that need to happen to escalate the threat
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The last few “events” have been north/west of me, bit I guess I’ll need to pay attention more. I believe my area has had events in January before
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Wouldn't sleep on the Georgia threat this go around
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Yeah, that is what I am gathering. The event we had last week woke me up at 4am with a TOR in the AL counties west of me.

Seems like Thursday may be different.

People cannot live in one of the most tornado-prone areas of the country (if not the world) and pretend they don’t live in one of the most tornado-prone areas of the country (if not the world). Very dangerous way of thinking.
 
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