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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

SPC Day 4-8 Discussion today.
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Sounding from north Mississippi 3oclock Thursday. Check out the directional shear looking at some isolated convection with those almost near westerlies at 500.



Position of the Low on the GFS is almost your prototypical severe/tornado setup location for a bad day in Mississippi and Alabama. (Belly button of Missouri to around the Memphis area for a low pressure system)



This threat bears watching mesoscale features and details will be ironed out but the general picture here supports a decent severe episode for the deep south.

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If I where a betting man I'd say this event has more potential at severe weather than the one that just came through for the twin states. Just your prototypical setup, easy to bet on. Still many model runs to come through but definitely a eye catcher of sorts.
 
MichelleH said:
That's why we're "Dixie Alley."
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Yup, and this is the typical Dixie alley setup for severe ;only it's January this time, I'f this look was coming though during March April or May it'd be setting off alarms in some meteorologists heads. But since it's January and instability is a question it's more so a wait and watch. Give this another day and if it sticks you'll probably see a day 5 risk somewhere in the south. There's a lot of minor details that could derail the threat so ill wait until about the day 4 timeframe when some mesoscale models come in to actually deep dive.
 
for some reason half of my photos are not uploading, but this is from a good poster on another forumn I was apart of; who said the best way to identify supercells or discreet convection was through the 850 mb vertical velocity. worked real well with the last event a few days out. Only thing that is a concern for derailing this would be timing and possibly junk convection, seems to be a lot of lift from what I've seen. The 12z was less diffluent which if I'm correct is better for less junk in this winter setup because less of a cap dry air in the atmosphere with less lift prevents a bunch of junk. Not a 100% sure lol feel free to correct me. I'm a amateur lol .

Also of not the better veering of winds with height from the 12z GFS.
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Probabilities showing up for January 12 on CIPS (valid 00Z January 13 or 7 PM EST January 12).
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Something doesn't sit right with me on the top 5 analogs, they're not representational of the actual threat, been looking at a combination of veterans day and April 15 2011 events. To get a better look at a more similar upper level low placement and lower instability threshold. The top 5 analogs don't mesh well. You have a better idea by looking at some of these events to see what could go wrong here.

Disregard the veterans day event, I looked at it but didn't mean to mention it in this post.
 
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