Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Hello 12z euro!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12z euro is about as nasty dynamic wise looking your gunna get if anybody can pull some soundngs it'd be appreciated i think it's a paid feature for some websites

 

[KevinH]

12z euro is about as nasty dynamic wise looking your gunna get if anybody can pull some soundngs it'd be appreciated i think it's a paid feature for some websites

Same areas as before too… smh

 

[Clancy]

Something doesn't sit right with me on the top 5 analogs, they're not representational of the actual threat, been looking at a combination of veterans day and April 15 2011 events. To get a better look at a more similar upper level low placement and lower instability threshold. The top 5 analogs don't mesh well. You have a better idea by looking at some of these events to see what could go wrong here.

Disregard the veterans day event, I looked at it but didn't mean to mention it in this post.

Sometimes CIPS analogs can get wonky so they aren't gospel by any stretch of the imagination. I'm sure things have improved but I remember somewhere seeing that CIPS would pull weird analogs during cold season events.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Found a free lightening density euro forecast. Prepare your eyes lol.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wow

 

[MichelleH]

I think the Euro is trying to kill me.

 

[KevinH]

I think the Euro is trying to kill me.

It’s always AL/MS.

I’ll be watching… from GA

 

[Clancy]

GFS and Euro have questionable moisture return in their 12Z runs, but otherwise seem to have a favorable look (coming from an amateur). Euro has a slower pace and brings the system into the area during the afternoon and evening of Thursday the 12th whereas the GFS would have it raking over AL by late night Thurs/early morning Friday.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

GFS and Euro have questionable moisture return in their 12Z runs, but otherwise seem to have a favorable look (coming from an amateur). Euro has a slower pace and brings the system into the area during the afternoon and evening of Thursday the 12th whereas the GFS would have it raking over AL by late night Thurs/early morning Friday.

I actually don't think moisture will be too much of a issue, more so timing. Time and time again models have shown there bias to under forecasting cape. 12z euro even shows a large swath of Alabama covered in about 1000j of instability on it's forecast. You'll probably reach around 1500j or so maybe touch 2000j in south Alabama if I had to guess. It's bound to change some but the signal is clear. This threat should be monitored.

 

[Clancy]

I actually don't think moisture will be too much of a issue, more so timing. Time and time again models have shown there bias to under forecasting cape. 12z euro even shows a large swath of Alabama covered in about 1000j of instability on it's forecast. You'll probably reach around 1500j or so maybe touch 2000j in south Alabama if I had to guess. It's bound to change some but the signal is clear. This threat should be monitored.

Definitely never wise to sleep on a cold season Dixie event with instability.

 

[KevinH]

Definitely never wise to sleep on a cold season Dixie event with instability.

EVER!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z GFS is trying to get in line behind the 12z euro. Speed the system up and now forecasts 1500sbcape for west Alabama.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z GFS is just as remarkable as 12z euro. 8 degree lapse rates in a small portion of west Alabama kinda curious to how much of this is modeling just bull'ing around because that's incredible for January in Alabama we rarely see that in spring and summer.

Sounding from Alabama Mississippi state line.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

So how many days was I ahead of the game haha?

 

[Clancy]

18z GFS is just as remarkable as 12z euro. 8 degree lapse rates in a small portion of west Alabama kinda curious to how much of this is modeling just bull'ing around because that's incredible for January in Alabama we rarely see that in spring and summer.

Sounding from Alabama Mississippi state line.

And so the trend-watching begins...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

And so the trend-watching begins...

Unfortunately yes, lol Ive almost burned out from this previous one, which actually ended up being a decent tornado outbreak 15 tornadoes and counting I think. So we may be on pace for a record breaking January in terms of warnings lol.

 

[Clancy]

Unfortunately yes, lol Ive almost burned out from this previous one, which actually ended up being a decent tornado outbreak 15 tornadoes and counting I think. So we may be on pace for a record break January in terms of warnings lol.

Sure hope it doesn't stay this active all winter and spring.

 

[KevinH]

Sure hope it doesn't stay this active all winter and spring.

If it IS active, may the damage be in unpopulated areas, etc.

 

[Clancy]

If it IS active, may the damage be in unpopulated areas, etc.

Indeed, though my hearts are always with those in rural communities and small towns that often don't get the attention they deserve during these events.