Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

[KevinH]

Indeed, though my hearts are always with those in rural communities and small towns that often don't get the attention they deserve during these events.

Right!

 

[Clancy]

FFC, BMX and JAN AFDs from earlier this afternoon suggest all three WFOs are keeping an eye on the possible threat around the 12th, with it being at nearly the end of the forecast period and noting model agreement about abundant shear and energy.

| FFC
By late in the week, a really interesting feature is being
projected in the models. Models show a strong closed off low
setting up over the southern Plains on Thursday with fairly good
agreement when it comes to placement at this time. The models stay
in pretty good agreement through Friday, showing a mid latitude
cyclone moving eastward with WPC predicting the triple point over
central GA. It is too soon to tell what this system will do, but
definitely something to watch as the week evolves considering the
model agreement this far out. Either way, there is abundant
moisture advection from the mid levels to the sfc that is
forecasted to move eastward into Georgia Thursday night into
Friday, which results in increased PoPs into the weekend. Temps
through the period are forecasted to stay in the 50s for the high
temps and the 30s for the low temps, until Friday when temps are
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 40s for the highs and the mid
30s for the lows.

| BMX
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CST SAT JAN 7 2023

Lingering showers over east Alabama Sunday evening will move out
before midnight. A weak cold front will pass through the area
Sunday night, bringing clearing skies and cooler temperatures.
Rain free conditions Monday through Wednesday with a gradually
warming trend as an upper ridge builds over the area. The upper
ridge is the result of a digging short wave trof over the Southern
Plains states. The upper trof will push eastward on Thursday and
produce a band of strong convection. The convection band will move
across Mississippi on Thursday, possibly reaching west Alabama by
late afternoon. However, the ECMWF model is about 12 hours faster
than the GFS, so confidence in timing is low at this time. This
system has plenty of energy and shear, but surface instability is
lacking. Models do shows lower 60s surface dewpoint moving into
southwest Alabama late Thursday, so there may be just enough
instability for a potential for severe storms. Confidence still
too low at this time to include a severe threat.

| JAN
Wednesday through next Saturday: By the middle of the week, a
deeper upper trough will take shape over the Four Corners region
and shift eastward across the continent Thursday into Friday. An
associated surface cyclone is forecast to track from the mid-
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front
across our area around Thursday. This system is still about five
days out so much could still change, but the larger scale pattern
of strong deep-layer shear and sufficient upper forcing may
support a threat for severe weather. Some of the finer details,
such as exact timing/available instability, still need to be
resolved before we can have a better idea if a severe threat may
be realized. Clouds and some light wrap- around rain showers may
persist into Friday before high pressure builds in with dry
weather and seasonable temperatures for next weekend. /DL/

 

[JPWX]

You can always count on BMX and JAN being the first to mention at least a threat for severe storms.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Huh, local Birmingham news station already mentioning the threat for bad weather for this event on there weather segment.

 

[KevinH]

Huh, local Birmingham news station already mentioning the threat for bad weather for this event on there weather segment.

Why does that make you say huh?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Why does that make you say huh?

Seems to soon, unless theyre confident in a bad weather event, usually they'll give it a bit of time and even then mention it barely. Seemed a little premature to me. News meteorologists play the weather game slow

 

[KevinH]

Seems to soon, unless theyre confident in a bad weather event, usually they'll give it a bit of time and even then mention it barely. Seemed a little premature to me. News meteorologists play the weather game slow

Ok that is what I thought. I’ll wait for Spann to say something lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Ok that is what I thought. I’ll wait for Spann to say something lol

I mean maybe there's enough confidence ; usually your bigger higher confidence synoptic scale events Garner a far out mention. Both the GFS and EURO are on board basically doing the same thing with minor timing difference, if that's the case I guess a threat outline should be expected for the next update.

 

[MichelleH]

Ok that is what I thought. I’ll wait for Spann to say something lol

If Spann mentions it this far out, we're in BIG trouble. He's conservative when it comes to severe threats.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

If Spann mentions it this far out, we're in BIG trouble. He's conservative when it comes to severe threats.

That's with most news mets too, usually once one jumps on board ; most everybody follows suite. Usually spc will put out a risk outline for that broadcast jurisdiction before they mention it so that's what got me a little confuddled it's running in reverse lol.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Yea most news mets aren't going to take the risk of being wrong.....so putting themselves out there with a bold forecast doesn't make sense for them.

Gary Lezak is the only news met I can think of that isn't scared to make a long range forecast.

 

[KevinH]

If Spann mentions it this far out, we're in BIG trouble. He's conservative when it comes to severe threats.

That is a good point. If the models come into better agreement within the next day or two, I am sure he will at least mention it.

 

[KevinH]

Yea most news mets aren't going to take the risk of being wrong.....so putting themselves out there with a bold forecast doesn't make sense for them.

Gary Lezak is the only news met I can think of that isn't scared to make a long range forecast.

And how is his track record? lol

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Well he is the inventor of the LRC(Lezak Recurring Cycle).

Some sources have the accuracy around 70-80%....and other sources claim even higher accuracy.

There are a few TV mets out there that live and die by the LRC.

A few mets I know that I've discussed this with categorize the LRC as "Psuedo-meteorology".

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Well he is the inventor of the LRC(Lezak Recurring Cycle).

Some sources have the accuracy around 70-80%....and other sources claim even higher accuracy.

There are a few TV mets out there that live and die by the LRC.

A few mets I know that I've discussed this with categorize the LRC as "Psuedo-meteorology".

Lol what the heck is that never heard of it before

 

[JBishopwx]

Lol what the heck is that never heard of it before

Zach Fradella of FOX8 in New Orleans often post about it on his Facebook page.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Synoptically a ideal comparison for what the ideal Alabama Mississippi setup would be is March 25th 2021. I've been looking back and forth between that one and this. Your belly button to Memphis upper low positioning as in the usual deep south major events.

 

[Clancy]

Synoptically a ideal comparison for what the ideal Alabama Mississippi setup would be is March 25th 2021. I've been looking back and forth between that one and this. Your belly button to Memphis upper low positioning as in the usual deep south major events.

Oh. Well that's not phenomenal.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Oh. Well that's not phenomenal.

Not saying it'll be like that day lol. The 2020 -2021 tornado events where pretty rare. The one thing they shared in common was the bowling ball upper low that grazed through the Memphis and belly button area. Spann has always mentioned this area as your Dixie setup location.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Not saying it'll be like that day lol. The 2020 -2021 tornado events where pretty rare. The one thing they shared in common was the bowling ball upper low that grazed through the Memphis and belly button area. Spann has always mentioned this area as your Dixie setup location.

ALTHOUGH* there's a heck of a lot of similarities which are to be expected with position of a upper level low in similar locations, that's why earlier I was confused as to some of the top analogs that were being pulled up.