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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

The broad 500mb trough shown by the Nam reminds me a bit of the evolution of 500mb trough on march 25th 2021 tornado event basically went from west to east and gave the south some very gnarly discreet storms.
250mb_0326_00Z.gif500mb_0326_00Z.gif
 
KevinH said:
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Ah yes the generic QCLS forecast of the south that will slowly translate to isolated convection ahead of the line lol. Can't blame them though a more out there post you can't really go back from especially if you have a following.

Sometimes all the data and trying to look at it gets my head spinning and I realize how much I really don't know lol
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Ah yes the generic QCLS forecast of the south that will slowly translate to isolated convection ahead of the line lol. Can't blame them though a more out there post you can't really go back from especially if you have a following.

Sometimes all the data and trying to look at it gets my head spinning lol
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That convection ahead of a line has saved us more than once from threats that could have been more…. ROBUST lol
 
KevinH said:
Ok this doesn’t scream “higher-end” to me. “Linear” and “damaging winds” are the key words I am picking out here lol

Things could still change though.
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It'll probably be a start of semi isolated and then grow upscale relatively fast if I had to guess. Probably
 
The internal discussion from local NWS office in Peachtree City included the following “As more runs come through it will be interesting to see how this system evolves but at this time the ingredients are coming together for an out of the normal system to make it`s way through on Thursday into Friday. SPC has outlined parts of north and central GA in a 15% for Day 4 at this time.”

For us Georgia folks, the “out of the normal system” part gets my attention, and the fact that it’s highlighted 4 days out is another point of interest.


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GA Stormchaser said:
The internal discussion from local NWS office in Peachtree City included the following “As more runs come through it will be interesting to see how this system evolves but at this time the ingredients are coming together for an out of the normal system to make it`s way through on Thursday into Friday. SPC has outlined parts of north and central GA in a 15% for Day 4 at this time.”

For us Georgia folks, the “out of the normal system” part gets my attention, and the fact that it’s highlighted 4 days out is another point of interest.


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FFC's AFD also highlights the fact that the storms, as modeled currently, will likely move through at peak daytime hours, which is relatively uncommon for us. Even if the event is primarily linear, there was a system like it, I think in March of 2013, that gave us a good whopping with winds and several tornado warnings.
 
Clancy said:
FFC's AFD also highlights the fact that the storms, as modeled currently, will likely move through at peak daytime hours, which is relatively uncommon for us. Even if the event is primarily linear, there was a system like it, I think in March of 2013, that gave us a good whopping with winds and several tornado warnings.
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Yep 3/18/13

en.wikipedia.org

Tornadoes of 2013 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
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