Severe Weather Threat - December 12-14, 2022

[Equus]

Amazing data from TMSY from that significant tornado; scanning at an elevation of 50-100ft there for several scans

 

[TH2002]

Fortunately the couplet on the Montz tornado has become a little less defined with the past couple scans as it passes over the lake, and it's not hitting anything currently (thus no TDS for now). It also spared the TMSY radar site though naturally it now has the KLIX radar in its crosshairs...

 

[BayouWeatherGeek]

Video of the Montz tornado.

 

[Equus]

Good thing the tornado/waterspout seems to have lifted or at least broadened, it's about to cross the causeway

 

[Taylor Campbell]

A new area of rotation to watch near Hattiesburg.

 

[Tennie]

Possible TDS east of Covington, LA:

 

[Equus]

If that's not on the ground it's certainly about to be


Edit - yeah that's definitely on the ground

 

[TH2002]

Possible TDS east of Covington, LA:

View attachment 16089

That's definitely a TDS. Small but tight couplet.

 

[akt1985]

Well east of the tornado watch, is anyone seeing anything suspicious with the supercell headed towards Panama City Beach?

 

[TH2002]

Heading directly for the south side of Talisheek. Worse yet most of the structures in that area are mobile/manufactured homes...

 

[Equus]

Wayne County, MS couplet has tightened significantly

 

[TH2002]

Heavy structural damage east of Quitman, MS with at least one structure reportedly "completely gone".

 

[TornadoFan]

Mesoscale Discussion 2033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southeast Mississippi...and
portions of southwest Alabama.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 588...

Valid 142053Z - 142230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 588 continues.

SUMMARY...Numerous strong supercells continue this afternoon with a
threat for strong tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells developed this afternoon with only
a few confirmed tornadoes. However, these storms have congealed into
a line of 5-6 dominant supercells extending from Clarke County,
Mississippi to southwest of New Orleans. This storm evolution is
seemingly more favorable for low-level updraft circulations as TDSs
have recently been observed in Clarke County, Mississippi and south
of Lake Pontchartrain from similar strength rotational velocity as
the numerous supercells which lacked a clear TDS in the prior 1 to 2
hours. Therefore, as heating reaches its diurnal maximum, low-level
flow continues to strengthen in association with the deepening
meso-low, and the low-level jet strengthens to 60+ knots per LIX
VWP, storms may be entering the period of greatest tornado
potential.

The most favorable environment is currently near New Orleans where
STP values of 4 to 5 exist with a couple supercells approaching from
the Southwest. Therefore, portions of southeast Louisiana, including
the New Orleans metro area may have the greatest chance for strong
tornadoes over the next 1 to 2 hours.

New MD out.

 

[atrainguy]

Yikes, this one's pointed right at New Orleans.

 

[Equus]

Cell headed for New Orleans is at the moment relatively discrete in an untapped environment, needs watching very close

 

[TornadoFan]

Yikes, this one's pointed right at New Orleans.

Another area of rotation right behind it.

 

[Tennie]

Got a possible TDS on the cell approaching New Orleans. I'd attach a screencap, but for some reason it won't upload.

 

[TH2002]

Got a possible TDS on the cell approaching New Orleans. I'd attach a screencap, but for some reason it won't upload.

It's looked suspicious on CC for the past couple scans, hard to tell if there's a TDS yet though.

 

[TH2002]

GRLevel3 has the path of the New Orleans cell headed directly for... Arabi

 

[Tennie]

Flash flooding has been reported in Hattiesburg, with multiple cars stalled out.