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Severe Weather Threat - December 12-14, 2022

Mesoscale Discussion 2032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...Southern MS...Southwest AL...Eastern LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 588...

Valid 141920Z - 142045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 588 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for strong, long-track tornadoes continues.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show numerous
discrete supercells, including a few which have rotational velocity
around 40 to 50 kt. The overall environment remain very conducive to
tornadic supercells with ample low-level moisture and buoyancy in
the presence of strong low to mid-level flow. Recent KLIX VAD data
shows increasing winds in the 1-2 km layer. This increase is likely
due to a mesoscale low-level jet, which is expected to move
northeastward across far southern MS and into southwest AL over the
next several hours. Attendant strengthening of the low-level shear
within this corridor could augment the already favorable conditions.
Surface observations also numerous gusts of 25 to 30 kt across
southeast LA.

Additionally, ongoing storms will likely strengthen as they approach
and interact the warm front, which now extends from about 50 miles
northwest of MEI southeastward to south of GZH in southern AL.

In all, the threat for strong, long-track tornadoes will continue
for at least the next few hours across eastern LA and southern MS,
eventually reaching southwest AL later this afternoon/early this
evening.
Click to expand...
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST WED DEC 14 2022

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ALABAMA...

..SUMMARY

STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOUISIANA,
MISSISSIPPI, AND ALABAMA, AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

..20Z UPDATE

MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL ROTATION ARE ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MS. THE 18Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM LIX SHOWS AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALSO PRESENT TO
FOSTER ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN WITH A MODEST MID-LEVEL INVERSION
NOTED AROUND 550 MB. ANY OF THESE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-50 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ON THE SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LA, SOUTHERN MS, AND SOUTHWESTERN AL.

THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK IS DENOTED BY A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN AL. AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD THIS EVENING, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
OUTPACE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. STILL, THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG. EVENTUALLY,
CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO NORTH FL
AND SOUTHERN GA. BUT, IT COULD STILL POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

..GLEASON.. 12/14/2022
Click to expand...
 
44de07fea4186b9c906ae7aa1d66a032.jpg


southwest of hattiesburg may be trying to spin something up. no warning yet.

EDIT: the unwarned couplet has strengthened in consecutive scans and its headed right for hattiesburg. not good.
 
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