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Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022

Warning is no surprise, those open warm sector cells could get nasty very fast


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Austin Dawg said:
It really does look like conditions are right for long-track storms the way things are popping up on the radar. I'm hoping it becomes too messy to really accentuate the conditions into one cell
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Unfortunately given the nature of the forcing today (driven mainly by confluence rather than the cold front) that's less likely than usual.
 
warneagle said:
Yeah I think they're probably justified in pulling the trigger at 20z. I understand their concerns about doing it at 1630, but I think their remaining questions are going to be resolved pretty soon. There's plenty of CAPE upstream that's already being advected into central Mississippi (see that LCH sounding I posted earlier) and the HRRR, etc. have been pretty consistent in establishing one or more confluence bands in the open warm sector (as noted in some of the earlier discussions here about the more subtle forcing than the typical messy Dixie Alley events).
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What time is 20Z? I haven't been on here in a while so I'm a bit rusty with time translation. Its certainly warmer & more humid than this am in Hoover.
 
Yeah that's one pretty significant difference compared to usual events here; usually stuff is pretty strongly forced and we get widespread convection and messy modes, but this time the forcing is all to the NW and we're dealing with widespread subtle ascent in the warm sector assisted by the subtropical jet, stuff will get messy eventually for sure but we have a better chance than usual to have less junk convection and more isolated storm mode for longer than we usually do; really increases the risk we get a long tracker or two
 
Regarding the tornado-warned storms in the NWS MOB area, seems like SPC is leaning against issuing a watch at this time:

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Mesoscale Discussion 1980
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...extreme southeast MS into southwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291952Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A brief supercell or two may pose a severe threat the next
couple of hours. However, coverage and aerial extent of the threat
is expected to be low, and a watch is not anticipated in the
short-term.

DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have slowly
increased this afternoon. A couple of thunderstorms over far
southeast MS have recently shown moderate low-level rotation in a
strongly sheared environment. A narrow corridor of near-70 F
dewpoints exists across far southeast MS into the Mobile vicinity
where the Gulf marine front has moved inland. Just north of this
boundary surface dewpoints are still in the low 60s F. As storms
track northeast and move into lower-quality boundary-layer moisture,
the severe threat should diminish. Given the small area of
surface-based supercell/tornado potential, a watch is not expected
in the short term. However, conditions should gradually become more
favorable later this afternoon or evening as boundary-layer moisture
advances northward and low-level flow increases. While a watch is
not expected in the short-term, one may be needed later this
evening.
 
Kolle said:
NWS HUN says KHTX could not be restarted remotely, so techs will have to go in person to Hytop to fix the issue. Thankfully, they say they have all the parts on hand to do so.
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Fortunately, Huntsville's CWA isn't really the core of the threatened area today, but they are close enough (like LZK) and with this setup, it's wise not to tempt fate.
 
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