Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022

[warneagle]

Yeah I think they're probably justified in pulling the trigger at 20z. I understand their concerns about doing it at 1630, but I think their remaining questions are going to be resolved pretty soon. There's plenty of CAPE upstream that's already being advected into central Mississippi (see that LCH sounding I posted earlier) and the HRRR, etc. have been pretty consistent in establishing one or more confluence bands in the open warm sector (as noted in some of the earlier discussions here about the more subtle forcing than the typical messy Dixie Alley events).

 

[Tennie]

I can't help but note that the probability contours in those images bear at least a passing resemblance to a hook echo. Make of that what you will...

 

[OHWX97]

Kinder, LA storm is now tornado warned.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Kinder, LA storm is now tornado warned.

That didn't take long.

 

[warneagle]

Welp, here we go.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Oof. Not wasting any time.

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[xJownage]

That warm front is absolutely cranking and is now approaching that convection in N MS. It's moving extremely rapidly. Another observation is that SFC winds have backed more than expected. The mesoscale details are pointing towards this being an extremely significant event.

 

[warneagle]

That didn't take long.

No, not at all. The speed with which that developed and went tornadic is a testament to how strong the parameters are, and this is just at the fringe of the enhanced risk too. This is the kind of airmass that's getting transported into Mississippi right now. The CAMs have been pretty consistent with setting up that conveyor belt right along the SW-NE axis this storm is moving along.

 

[KevinH]

View attachment 15669View attachment 15670

Oof. Not wasting any time.

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I noticed this TOR only shows up (for me), when the warning data comes from AllisonHouse. RadarScope looks like this

 

[warneagle]

Some severe warnings have also popped with the elevated convection north of the warm front in northern Mississippi.

 

[SmokeEater]

Like Spann says, the first storm of the day tells a story, and if that cell doesn't give the look like the start of a classic Dixie outbreak, I don't know what does.

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[CheeselandSkies]

That thing is already a classic beast with a pronounced velocity couplet. No CC drop that I can see...yet.

 

[TornadoFan]

Rotation really ramped up

 

[OHWX97]

Tornado warned storm now has a BWER on reflectivity. Tornado likely imminent, if it isn't already in progress.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Like Spann says, the first storm of the day tells a story

Oh no.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Like Spann says, the first storm of the day tells a story, and if that cell doesn't give the look like the start of a classic Dixie outbreak, I don't know what does.

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That was my thought a few minutes ago when I first pulled up KPOE on Radarscope.

 

[StormStalker]

Im sitting at 66/57. It’s starting to feel more like severe weather out there. It was 36 this morning!

 

[Smokedevil]

I'm in Monroe County ms. Winds are cranking at about 30 to 35. And it has got very warm.
Sun's out atm.

 

[Equus]

That cell is only on the edge of the ENH... this is certainly escalating fast, and we're barely even at the start of it

 

[CheeselandSkies]

16Z HRRR is behind the 8-ball, didn't show tornadic stuff firing in LA till FH004 (20Z).