Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022

[Lake Martin EF4]

SPC has highlighted a 30% severe risk on Day Five. Includes Shreveport (most of northern LA in fact), and bits of AR and MS.


Several NWS offices and models are also expecting something major.

FFC AFD mentions chance for strong storms with next week's system.

BMX's is likewise.

If the 00z Euro/EPS is on the right track, this event could be significant and widespread.

View attachment 15580View attachment 15581View attachment 15582

 

[KevinH]

SPC has highlighted a 30% severe risk on Day Five. Includes Shreveport (most of northern LA in fact), and bits of AR and MS.
View attachment 15590
View attachment 15591
Several NWS offices and models are also expecting something major.

Not 100% at this point as we all know things can change, but definitely something to watch even more now!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Paging @Fred Gossage ...

Been a while since he's chimed in with an analysis of an upcoming threat, but when he does it's always very informative.

 

[Brice]

When was the last time we had a D5 30% this late?

 

[JBishopwx]

When was the last time we had a D5 30% this late?

Paging @JPWX to check my work, but I could find a D5 30% later than this.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

When was the last time we had a D5 30% this late?

I wanted to say December 6th of last year (valid for the 10th), but that setup wasn't predictable enough. They didn't even have a 15% until the Day 3 issued on the 8th.

 

[JPWX]

When was the last time we had a D5 30% this late?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20200110

For the general area of the current Day 5, it was January 10th, 2020. Going back to 2014, this is the first 30% Day 5 issued in the month of November.

 

[JBishopwx]

Paging @JPWX to check my work, but I could find a D5 30% later than this.

Couldn't

 

[chasestormz39]

Paging @Fred Gossage ...

Been a while since he's chimed in with an analysis of an upcoming threat, but when he does it's always very informative.

I second that. I've always really respected Fred's analysis of upcoming events.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I second that. I've always really respected Fred's analysis of upcoming events.

Also listen what Andy has to say also. Great details on a upcoming event

 

[chasestormz39]

Yes, Andy also has done some fantastic analysis over the years.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Does anyone else see the potential forcing issues?

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

All Day 5 30% issuances since 2014 per SPC Forecaster Elizabeth Leitman.

 

[JPWX]

She made a mistake for February 2nd 2015 as there was no 30% area valid at Day 5 on January 29th. The rest of the dates were either Enhanced, Moderate, or High Risk. A total of 5 for both Enhanced and Moderate with just one High.

 

[JPWX]

Here's the 18z GFS CWASP

 

[KevinH]

Here's the 18z GFS CWASP
View attachment 15601

Keep ‘em coming!

 

[MichelleH]

Here's the 18z GFS CWASP
View attachment 15601

Oof.

 

[TH2002]

If northern Louisiana ends up being the epicenter for this potential outbreak, it will coincidentally fall on the 12th anniversary of the most recent official violent tornado in the state (the 11/29/2010 Winn Parish EF4) and the month of November in general has seen a number of significant, deadly tornado events in this region.

The GFS model so far wants to show SBCAPE values of up to 1500-2000 J/kg and 1km SRH values generally in the 200-300m2s2 range, but of course there's only one way to find out how this will unfold...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

At this time, I think southeast Arkansas as a chase target. The GFS and EURO look suspect from El Dorado to Dermott, AR to Cleveland, MS Tuesday afternoon and eve.

Side note: looks like there could be radar hole issues.

 

[UK_EF4]

Latest NAM pretty impressive across LA, AR, MS on Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. Quite a lot of PDS TOR soundings pulled up. A very favourable environment for sure (at least on the NAM), but likely all dependent on storm initiation.