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Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022

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SPC has highlighted a 30% severe risk on Day Five. Includes Shreveport (most of northern LA in fact), and bits of AR and MS.
7 days out.png
Screenshot 2022-11-25 at 08-22-12 Storm Prediction Center Nov 25 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather O...png
Several NWS offices and models are also expecting something major.
FFC AFD mentions chance for strong storms with next week's system.

BMX's is likewise.
If the 00z Euro/EPS is on the right track, this event could be significant and widespread.
 

KevinH

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Taylor Campbell

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Does anyone else see the potential forcing issues?
 

JPWX

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She made a mistake for February 2nd 2015 as there was no 30% area valid at Day 5 on January 29th. The rest of the dates were either Enhanced, Moderate, or High Risk. A total of 5 for both Enhanced and Moderate with just one High.
 

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If northern Louisiana ends up being the epicenter for this potential outbreak, it will coincidentally fall on the 12th anniversary of the most recent official violent tornado in the state (the 11/29/2010 Winn Parish EF4) and the month of November in general has seen a number of significant, deadly tornado events in this region.

The GFS model so far wants to show SBCAPE values of up to 1500-2000 J/kg and 1km SRH values generally in the 200-300m2s2 range, but of course there's only one way to find out how this will unfold...
 

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At this time, I think southeast Arkansas as a chase target. The GFS and EURO look suspect from El Dorado to Dermott, AR to Cleveland, MS Tuesday afternoon and eve.

Side note: looks like there could be radar hole issues. :rolleyes:
 
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UK_EF4

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Latest NAM pretty impressive across LA, AR, MS on Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. Quite a lot of PDS TOR soundings pulled up. A very favourable environment for sure (at least on the NAM), but likely all dependent on storm initiation.
 
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