CheeselandSkies
Member
Yup, this is basically the exact opposite of the "surging cold front" scenario that SPC was talking about when this setup first came into Day 6-7 range. Definitely trended much more ominous for significant tornado potential.
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Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
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Yup, this is basically the exact opposite of the "surging cold front" scenario that SPC was talking about when this setup first came into Day 6-7 range. Definitely trended much more ominous for significant tornado potential.
Equus
Member
Yeah usually we're seeing a mass of regionwide rain by now over the risk area, the virtually clear conditions over the MDT and subtlety of forcing is pretty ominous for this one
xJownage
Member
the subtropical jet assisted with the shifting of the target area to the east, which is why we're having this conversation. One of the meteorologists I talked to noted this at the far out range. It's a significant difference from normal dixie events and something you'll likely only get during the cool season; this is a very unique setup for this area. I don't know of any analogues for this setup, does anybody else?
CheeselandSkies
Member
Also, I've been focusing on MS, but the latest HRRR has a (implied based on simulated reflectivity presentation and updraft helicity) tornadic cell tracking across central into northeastern Louisiana (and perhaps into MS, following the others) this afternoon, as well.
CheeselandSkies
Member
One more thing for now, seems this has really focused into a MS/LA/perhaps AL event. The threat, while non-zero, has decreased quite a bit across most of AR and western TN as compared to how it looked about 18 hours ago. So hindsight being 20/20, probably could have gone ahead with that LZK radar maintenance. Just mother nature trolling the NWS.
NorthGaWeather
Member
While it is only one model run, and will likely change in future runs, the 00z run of the 1km WRF-NSSL CAM is unreal. Apologies for the large images. Large UH swaths accompany those supercells.
xJownage
Member
I'm not buying this run. Mature supercells on the MS/AL border by 2200 doesn't make sense to me given the nature of the synoptic setup. It's about 2 hours too early imo.
tennessee storm chaser
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Storms firing back se Arkansas are elevated.. but also could enhance some outflow boundaries for later main show
xJownage
Member
Based on obs, warm front is progressing far faster than expected. It's already well into MS and N LA. Thermals are going to slightly overperform, probably by 1-2C, in the entire warm sector.
Bama Ravens
Member
It was 32.7 degrees where I live about 20 miles north of Birmingham this morning. It doesn't "feel" like a severe weather threat exists over the next 20 hours. I know it doesn't take much unstable air in the winter season to get severe weather, but it seems like central Alabama (particularly north of I-20/59) will have to see a major airmass change for things to get going there. I know there is still plenty of time for an airmass change, but it does make me wonder if it will actually happen for my area.
The Td's are certainly ahead of what is progeed even the 12z run, the lack of rainfall and sunshine is going to speed the arimass recovery.
CheeselandSkies
Member
One of the most valuable things I've learned from discussing severe events on this board, particularly from @Fred Gossage , is how to use subtle differences in the synoptic features (such as wavelength of the 500mb trough) to distinguish between setups that favor discrete supercells firing in the open warm sector, vs. ones that will go to an instant convective mess along the front.
xJownage
Member
This is one of the reasons we're looking at multiple rounds/training cells. WAA is going to be very strong today. The CAMs were missing this yesterday and that's why ensembles especially were so far south. 2 days ago I said this would be a corridor of higher end threat from around 30 miles south of Monroe up to around columbus and I got clowned on other socials, but that's looking like the major threat area right now. Synoptics win again.
With our increasing confidence in location and potential for multiple rounds, would not be surprised to see a 1630Z high for that general area from monroe & slightly south up towards the MS/AL border near Columbus.
NorthGaWeather
Member
Perhaps it is too early, but the general idea of what this is showing would still be possible at 00z-03z. To me, this is more of a worst case look at what could occur.
I am seeing 11/24/2001 event pop up as sounding analogs...that setup was a bit differently sypnotically but I remember that day starting earlier than expected.
TornadoFan
Member
Clancy
Member
SVR in N MS.
OHWX97
Member
12z Nadocast...
xJownage
Member
I don't have much faith in the NSSL. The southern target is overperforming and the northern target is convecting 50 miles too far south imo based on its initialization.
Looking at the below, you can see pretty clearly which of the CAMs are convecting where. This is missing the 1km NSSL that has been posted several times, though. The southern target is a big question mark.
Obs are telling me warm front is rapidly moving north and WAA is stronger than expected. Based on the synoptic setup, I think the HRRR actually has a great handle on this.
Looking at the below, you can see pretty clearly which of the CAMs are convecting where. This is missing the 1km NSSL that has been posted several times, though. The southern target is a big question mark.
Obs are telling me warm front is rapidly moving north and WAA is stronger than expected. Based on the synoptic setup, I think the HRRR actually has a great handle on this.
