CheeselandSkies
Member
Being that our dynamics are at least partially driven by a subtropical jet, this setup is a lot different than normal dixie setups. The extremely subtle forcing well ahead of the influencing front almost guarantees a discrete mode that can be maintained for hours with multiple rounds possible given enough warm air advection. The lack of convection in the southern half of the target area early on will also make warm air advection easier, making multiple rounds more likely.
Look for SFC backing. Also, keep an eye on these elevated cells in AR right now. Should they intensify, they could leave some weak outflow boundaries, which could serve as spots for both initiation and enhanced SRH to assist in tornadogenesis with ongoing cells.
Yup, this is basically the exact opposite of the "surging cold front" scenario that SPC was talking about when this setup first came into Day 6-7 range. Definitely trended much more ominous for significant tornado potential.