Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022

[warneagle]

I have to say I'm surprised by that, but they're the experts and I'm a random guy on the internet.

 

[xJownage]

SPC debated upgrading to high risk. Staying MDT

might be because how messy the warm sector appears to be already. I wasn't expecting it to be nearly this messy with such subtle forcing.

That being said, I expect a few of these cells to start sucking up all the garbage around them. I'd also keep an eye to see which updrafts become dominant of the cluster of cells in C LA right now.

 

[bjdrivers]

might be because how messy the warm sector appears to be already. I wasn't expecting it to be nearly this messy with such subtle forcing.

That being said, I expect a few of these cells to start sucking up all the garbage around them. I'd also keep an eye to see which updrafts become dominant of the cluster of cells in C LA right now.

Yeah, MDT risk area is still clear, will likely explode post 3PM

 

[Austin Dawg]

Is it my imagination, or are three spots in this line of storms that are trying to spin?

 

[Tennie]

might be because how messy the warm sector appears to be already. I wasn't expecting it to be nearly this messy with such subtle forcing.

That being said, I expect a few of these cells to start sucking up all the garbage around them. I'd also keep an eye to see which updrafts become dominant of the cluster of cells in C LA right now.

Plus, the updated discussion mentioned that weak low-level lapse rates may currently be holding back at least some of the cells from producing tornadoes. We'll have to see if anything changes between now and later today/tonight...

 

[bjdrivers]

I would not be surprised if there's another violent, long track, Mayfield style after dark tonight.

 

[Tennie]

TOR issued northwest of Jackson, MS:

129
WFUS54 KJAN 292008
TORJAN
MSC015-051-053-083-292115-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0082.221129T2008Z-221129T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
208 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Holmes County in central Mississippi...
Southwestern Carroll County in north central Mississippi...
Southern Leflore County in north central Mississippi...
Humphreys County in central Mississippi...

* Until 315 PM CST.

* At 207 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Midnight, or 7 miles south of Belzoni, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Swiftown around 225 PM CST.
Quito around 235 PM CST.
Sidon and Seven Pines around 240 PM CST.
Greenwood around 250 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Silver
City, Morgan City and Cruger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3334 8985 3301 9042 3301 9044 3299 9045
3295 9052 3305 9066 3310 9066 3333 9050
3333 9045 3340 9045 3361 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 221DEG 49KT 3308 9053

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

DB

 

[xJownage]

Plus, the updated discussion mentioned that weak low-level lapse rates may currently be holding back at least some of the cells from producing tornadoes. We'll have to see if anything changes between now and later today/tonight...

Yes, but we expected weak LLLRs. when you have such a moist SFC layer, you don't need strong LLLRs. If you recall, 11/4 was the same way, and storms took a while to start producing tors.

In environments like this, storms need time to mature. This isn't the plains where you get a mature supercell in half an hour.

An important caveat is that this is just the first wave for MS. A second wave is expected tonight, and if model guidance is to be believed, that second wave will actually be more robust than the first one.

 

[Equus]

To be fair the warm sector is still far less junky than it tends to be even with more convection than expected, should still easily get a couple cells clear of competition that start to ramp up later this evening

 

[bjdrivers]

To be fair the warm sector is still far less junky than it tends to be even with more convection than expected, should still easily get a couple cells clear of competition that start to ramp up later this evening

the fuse is lit.....we just don't know how long it will burn

 

[xJownage]

To be fair the warm sector is still far less junky than it tends to be even with more convection than expected, should still easily get a couple cells clear of competition that start to ramp up later this evening

Yes. I expect some of the dominant updrafts to suck up some of the garbage surrounding them.

 

[Richardjacks]

The warm sector is really expanding and building in central Alabama hindrance free.

 

[bjdrivers]

So far a lot of these cells are HP & will be rain-wrapped.

 

[OHWX97]

Tornado is likely in progress south of Chatom, AL.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Big problems maybe if this one clears the inflow more

 

[Austin Dawg]

Is it my imagination, or are three spots in this line of storms that are trying to spin?

View attachment 15691

Never mind, it's already spinning!

 

[South AL Wx]

MOB says the Tornado Warning for the Washington County storm will expire at 2:30.

EDIT: They replaced it with a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

 

[bjdrivers]

Never mind, it's already spinning!

Debris signature showing up now

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado warning way back sw of Natchitoches, Louisiana.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado warning way back sw of Natchitoches, Louisiana.

Yeah we're gonna be here for a while I'm afraid.