Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022

[warneagle]

Our current central MS bad boi looks to be turning right a bit and is in position to threaten places like Starkville, West Point and perhaps the GWX radar site down the line.

That cell down south near McComb is worrying too just because it's all by itself. I wonder if there's another line of convergence setting up down there? Some of the model runs supported that idea.

 

[TornadoFan]

Won't be surprised if that Winnfield, LA storm gets a warning on it.

 

[Julian]

The cell north of West might have just dropped a tornado

 

[xJownage]

Yeah my surprise was more that they went 95/90 on the watch and then stayed with moderate. I don't think there's necessarily a correlation between the probs and the outlook but those probs suggested a pretty high level of confidence in a higher-end event.

I think it's because they were confident in it happening **somewhere** within that watch area, but they weren't sure enough of the location to issue a high for a specific part of the watch. Basically: the watch is a wider area than a high would be in an outlook.

 

[warneagle]

I think it's because they were confident in it happening **somewhere** within that watch area, but they weren't sure enough of the location to issue a high for a specific part of the watch. Basically: the watch is a wider area than a high would be in an outlook.

Yeah, that makes sense. Like, I have an idea of where you'd place it but if you're not totally confident in the placement of the boundary then yeah you might wanna hold off. The moderate will probably verify fine though.

 

[SmokeEater]

Confirmed tor on the northern cell.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[Clancy]

BMX to do a FB livestream shortly.

 

[Clancy]

Also, SPC looking at possibly issuing new Tornado Watch for parts of western Alabama.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

BMX to do a FB livestream shortly.

73/64 in Tuscaloosa.

 

[JPWX]

Flash flood threat developing from parts of central MS into North MS.

 

[Tennie]

 

[xJownage]

So, remember what I was saying about the LA storms about an hour ago? This is what i'm talking about. As the 700mb winds improve, these will be the storms that move into the warm sector in C MS. This is the "train" of supercells the HRRR was indicating earlier, although they are slightly behind where the HRRR had them originally.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

77/72 in Vicksburg and 75/71 in Yazoo City. That seems quite scary considering the parameters that are in place.

 

[Tennie]

The cell just north of Summerville, LA, bears watching fairly closely.

EDIT: And they just issued a tornado warning for it:

891
WFUS54 KSHV 292200
TORSHV
LAC021-059-292245-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0077.221129T2200Z-221129T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
400 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Caldwell Parish in north central Louisiana...
Northeastern La Salle Parish in north central Louisiana...

* Until 445 PM CST.

* At 359 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Rosefield, or 11 miles south of Columbia, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Caldwell and northeastern La Salle Parishes, including
the following locations... Spaulding, Standard, Burlington and
Kelly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 9190 3208 9190 3209 9191 3207 9193
3206 9191 3201 9189 3193 9190 3193 9201
3178 9201 3172 9224 3193 9229 3213 9189
3212 9188 3213 9188 3209 9187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 239DEG 49KT 3193 9205

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

26

 

[Clancy]

JAN NWR station KIH-48 (serving parts of SW MS) off the air due to technical difficulties.

IEM :: PNS from NWS JAN

PNS issued by NWS JAN at 29 Nov 2022 21:55 UTC

mesonet.agron.iastate.edu

 

[Austin Dawg]

If you want to know where the fuel is starting for the storm system, it is currently 82° in Austin with High Winds out of the south which will be shifting to North tonight low in the upper 30s

 

[SmokeEater]

About to be problems for Enterprise, LA.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[Tennie]

It's beginning to look more and more like the main event might occur after sundown...

 

[UK_EF4]

Two main more robust areas of convection to the SW of the more semi-discrete line at the moment, one more showery right now but especially the supercell moving out of LA which is currently tornado warned. The environment is already favourable, but wonder if any sort of subtle outflow might bring about a slightly enhanced zone of severe potential though obviously small scale mesoscale things like that hard to anticipate.

 

[warneagle]

Two main more robust areas of convection to the SW of the more semi-discrete line at the moment, one more showery right now but especially the supercell moving out of LA which is currently tornado warned. The environment is already favourable, but wonder if any sort of subtle outflow might bring about a slightly enhanced zone of severe potential though obviously small scale mesoscale things like that hard to anticipate.

Based on the obs we've seen, if there's any kind of right-mover in that line it's going to be bad news.