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pohnpei

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While its path length was nowhere near as long, Hackleburg-Phil Campbell is probably the best analog for the Tri-State tornado in modern times as it was at high-end EF5 intensity for most of its path and followed a highway that took it through town and town (similar to the Tri-State following a railroad) and killed tons of people with a high injury to fatality ratio.
Before Mayfield, Hackleburg was the best analog to Tri state. But there's a world of difference between 103miles and roughly 170miles in terms of longevity tbh. And Hackleburg did a semi-cycle near Mount Hope and it's life span can be clearly divided into two part which made It more similar to El Reno 11 or Bridge Creek 99. Actually El Reno 11 lasted even longer than Hackleburg and people rarely say El Reno was similar to Tri state. Equally important here was Hackleburg even not the longest tornado on that day whileTri state/Mayfield was easily the most conspicuous tornado of their outbreak. Hackleburg had the environment as good as It can be so if I had to guess I would say Hackleburg likely the strongest of the three.

Also it's a big exaggeration to say Hackleburg/Tri State was high end EF5 for most part of its life because It was not. There's no too much difference about house quality between Tri state and Mayfield which means that Tri State in nowadays would also be captious by engineers and probably won't be rated EF5. And like I said about Mayfield, I also didn't see many trees got debarked for Tri state in pics available. The difference here was Tri State probably had a wider core than Mayfield or Hackleburg which made It more deadlier. Lack of warning system also played a important role in it.
 
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pohnpei

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I 100% believe Yazoo City had EF5 potential. There was at least one large, likely well-built home reduced to its foundation by the tornado, and I wouldn't be surprised if there were several more, but the damage that this thing caused beyond Yazoo City limits is very poorly documented.
View attachment 14668
Those tree damage behind was nothing close to EF5. I've never seen any tree damage of Yazoo City was above mid range EF4 level. There's possiblity that severe damage got undocumented outside of Yazoo City but I would like to see more proofs.
I think it's clear that the longevity of tornados didn't tantamount to EF5 potential.
 
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locomusic01

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So, I've spent most of the last two days or so on New Richmond 1899. To start, I plotted out a track using damage reports and old plat maps.


Note that the track is a WIP - the damage was almost certainly caused by some combination of multiple tornadoes and downbursts. I'm pretty confident there was a break in the area south of Stanton, though I'm not sure yet if it occurred before or after the fatality there. Might've been another west or northwest of Clear Lake. Beyond that, it's possible the tornado(es) may have started as far south as the Hastings/Afton, MN areas and continued as far northeast as Barron/Rice Lake, WI. There was some damage reported in all of these areas but it's not clear if it was tornadic or straight-line in nature. Other tornadoes also occurred - maybe as many as three or four? - but I don't have enough info on that yet.

Anywho, the New Richmond tornado itself started over Lake St. Croix as a powerful stovepipe waterspout and reportedly debarked and denuded a grove of trees on the eastern shore when it made landfall (so to speak). The official death toll is 117, but it seems pretty likely the actual toll was higher. Multiple people reported between four and nine other fatalities southwest of town that aren't officially included. Still working on verifying them. In New Richmond proper, many reports indicated "numerous" victims that couldn't be counted because they'd been buried in basements when fires started among the wreckage. It took quite a long time to put some of the fires out, so you get the idea. A lot of people had come in from all across the countryside for the circus that afternoon, which complicates matters even further. What's more, some people had been caught out in the streets when the tornado struck and.. let's just say they were left in states that would've made them rather harder to count.

Another thing I thought was interesting: I've read two different accounts so far that either implied or straight up suggested the tornado may have been just as strong - if not stronger - to the southwest of town (particularly near Boardman). Considering how violent it was in New Richmond, that would certainly be saying something if true.

Edit: Oh, also don't pay attention to the deaths. I've only just started plotting them - obviously I'm only about a hundred short lol
 
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So, I've spent most of the last two days or so on New Richmond 1899. To start, I plotted out a track using damage reports and old plat maps.


Note that the track is a WIP - the damage was almost certainly caused by some combination of multiple tornadoes and downbursts. I'm pretty confident there was a break in the area south of Stanton, though I'm not sure yet if it occurred before or after the fatality there. Might've been another west or northwest of Clear Lake. Beyond that, it's possible the tornado(es) may have started as far south as the Hastings/Afton, MN areas and continued as far northeast as Barron/Rice Lake, WI. There was some damage reported in all of these areas but it's not clear if it was tornadic or straight-line in nature. Other tornadoes also occurred - maybe as many as three or four? - but I don't have enough info on that yet.

Anywho, the New Richmond tornado itself started over Lake St. Croix as a powerful stovepipe waterspout and reportedly debarked and denuded a grove of trees on the eastern shore when it made landfall (so to speak). The official death toll is 117, but it seems pretty likely the actual toll was higher. Multiple people reported between four and nine other fatalities southwest of town that aren't officially included. Still working on verifying them. In New Richmond proper, many reports indicated "numerous" victims that couldn't be counted because they'd been buried in basements when fires started among the wreckage. It took quite a long time to put some of the fires out, so you get the idea. A lot of people had come in from all across the countryside for the circus that afternoon, which complicates matters even further. What's more, some people had been caught out in the streets when the tornado struck and.. let's just say they were left in states that would've made them rather harder to count.

Another thing I thought was interesting: I've read two different accounts so far that either implied or straight up suggested the tornado may have been just as strong - if not stronger - to the southwest of town (particularly near Boardman). Considering how violent it was in New Richmond, that would certainly be saying something if true.
Alright so New Richmond's the next article? Kinda was hoping for Blackwell-Udall, but I'll gladly take this.
 

TH2002

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Those tree damage behind was nothing close to EF5. I've never seen any tree damage of Yazoo City was above mid range EF4 level. There's possiblity that severe damage got undocumented outside of Yazoo City but I would like to see more proofs.
I think it's clear that the longevity of tornados didn't tantamount to EF5 potential.
Are you sure it's not maybe a tree species thing? The 2/28/1987 Glade, MS tornado also slabbed at least one well-built brick home without causing any debarking (at least not any that was photographed):
Glade-F5-damage-brickhome.JPG
Glade-damage-homes.JPG

The closest thing I've seen to debarking from Yazoo City is this:
img_1316_4549036117_o.jpg
 

pohnpei

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Are you sure it's not maybe a tree species thing? The 2/28/1987 Glade, MS tornado also slabbed at least one well-built brick home without causing any debarking (at least not any that was photographed):
View attachment 14669
View attachment 14670

The closest thing I've seen to debarking from Yazoo City is this:
View attachment 14671
Yazoo City encountered many tree species throughout its path and I didn't see any of them got major debarked. Also the treefall pattern showed on satellite was nothing close to Hackleburg/Smithville/Bassfield. Most nature forests in MS were softwood and it's not especially hard to debark. Tornados like Louisville/Bassfield had mutiple places/different tree species got completely debarked. I would rather believe the damage already made by the tornado rather than speculation. I also never see impressive vehicle damage or scouring or any other impressive DI of Yazoo City.Glade MS 1987 was also not close to EF5 level imo.

And the last pic was not debarking and can be done by EF2 level tornados.
 

locomusic01

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Alright so New Richmond's the next article? Kinda was hoping for Blackwell-Udall, but I'll gladly take this.
Still trying to make up my mind so I've been doing some work on both. I think I'm probably down to one or the other though. Kinda leaning toward New Richmond just because it's a smaller-scale event and it'd be a lot quicker. Not too many survivors left to talk to about that one lol
 
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Are you sure it's not maybe a tree species thing? The 2/28/1987 Glade, MS tornado also slabbed at least one well-built brick home without causing any debarking (at least not any that was photographed):
View attachment 14669
View attachment 14670

The closest thing I've seen to debarking from Yazoo City is this:
View attachment 14671
pohnpei is really arrogant with his posts lately; just ignore him. I'm sure Yazoo City had EF5 intensity at some point it just didn't hit any DIs capable of registering it.
 
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Still trying to make up my mind so I've been doing some work on both. I think I'm probably down to one or the other though. Kinda leaning toward New Richmond just because it's a smaller-scale event and it'd be a lot quicker. Not too many survivors left to talk to about that one lol
New Richmond might be better for now as a breather (Fergus Falls might be too) but Udall-Blackwell might be too as I doubt there's a whole lot of survivors left from it at this point.
 

pohnpei

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pohnpei is really arrogant with his posts lately; just ignore him. I'm sure Yazoo City had EF5 intensity at some point it just didn't hit any DIs capable of registering it.
If I'm being arrogant I'm sorry. The point here is what are we really talking about. Fact or speculation or wishful thinking? Did any evidence really exist about the EF5 speculation? Is longevity exert an impact on the EF5 speculation? If a tornado only tracked 10 or 20miles with the damage Yazoo City did, would anyone claim the EF5 potential?
 

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There are pros and cons to both stances. You could either take the side that based on the very violent-looking radar returns, the incredible path length that wasn't all that well documented, the fact that it (at the time) was the widest tornado ever recorded in Mississippi, and caused EF4 damage while not even making a direct hit on Yazoo City, that it certainly was capable of EF5 damage at some point. Or, one could say it's unlikely that it reached EF5 intensity as the damage found in the fringes of Yazoo City didn't match up with the intensity of the radar returns. Not saying that one stance or the other is the "correct" one, but I feel that since tornadoes are quite the puzzle that we'll probably never fully understand, sometimes it's necessary to think outside the box rather than jump to immediate conclusions when analyzing them.
 

locomusic01

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New Richmond might be better for now as a breather (Fergus Falls might be too) but Udall-Blackwell might be too as I doubt there's a whole lot of survivors left from it at this point.
You'd be surprised! I've already talked to a couple of people, including the daughter of the man who owned the infamous mangled truck in Udall.

jjlGqHz.jpg


MvlqoXk.jpg


The numbers are definitely dwindling, but there are still quite a few people out there who remember that night, and many others who grew up hearing about it from their parents, neighbors, etc.
 
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It's ultimately meaningless in terms of actual tornado intensity of course, but the day of the Yazoo City tornado (4/24/10) had some of the most ominous wording I ever saw used in SPC outlooks and local WFO AFDs until a year and three days later. Certainly a dangerous environment supportive of high-end tornadoes was in place that day.

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I wonder if the New Richmond setup was at all similar to last Wednesday's, only with the strongest tornado of the outbreak actually going through a town at peak intensity.

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While its path length was nowhere near as long, Hackleburg-Phil Campbell is probably the best analog for the Tri-State tornado in modern times as it was at high-end EF5 intensity for most of its path and followed a highway that took it through town and town (similar to the Tri-State following a railroad) and killed tons of people with a high injury to fatality ratio.
Appearance wise Hackleburg is probably what Tri State looked like but the only officially rated EF5 section of the path was from Hackleburg to Mt. Hope though it probably briefly reached EF5 strength near Trinity and Tanner. Mayfield’s duration of violent EF4+ damage was insane, from Cayce to Bremen (a distance of nearly 120 miles) there was consistent EF4 damage in every populated center it impacted. Sure it fluctuated here and there most notably north of Benton and in Barnsley (although the damage in Barnsley was violent and very likely of EF4 intensity) but for the vast majority of that span it was EF4 strength, likely the longest swath of violent damage in modern history and among the longest in recorded history.
 

pohnpei

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I wonder if the New Richmond setup was at all similar to last Wednesday's, only with the strongest tornado of the outbreak actually going through a town at peak intensity.

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It's also interesting to notice that day literally like open the curtain of one of the most impressive/active/memorable severe weather period in Us history(4/24/10-4/15/12). The year before that day was very quiet(2009/5-2010/4) in terms of severe weather.But things went absolutely crazy from that day. So many historic events/outbreaks and memorable days whithin two years.(4/24/10 5/10/10 6/17/10 10/6/10 4/16/11 4/27/11 5/22/11 5/24/11 6/20/11 3/2/12 4/14/12 etc) Then the year after this period was also absolutely quite(2012/5-2013/4)
 

pohnpei

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I wonder if the New Richmond setup was at all similar to last Wednesday's, only with the strongest tornado of the outbreak actually going through a town at peak intensity.

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It's pretty unthinkable for me that WI can manage to produce tornado as strong as New Richmond. It's hard to find anything similar in last 100 years. Even Barneveld 1984 was not on the same level of New Richmond imho.
 

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F4 tornado in Springfiled MO 1991.
Tim Marshall surveyed the damage and noted the strongest damage he noted was high end F4 level.
View attachment 14672View attachment 14673View attachment 14674View attachment 14675View attachment 14676
Some rather impressive contextual damage here. Photo #4 shows not only grass scouring, but significant granulation of structural debris. That toothpick-like splintering of lumber is something I associate with pretty violent tornado events. High-end F4 sounds very much justified. If any of those homes were well-anchored, I'd say F5 should have at least been discussed.

I've heard of this event, but didn't realize how intense the damage was.
 
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SGFmoTwister

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F4 tornado in Springfiled MO 1991.
Tim Marshall surveyed the damage and noted the strongest damage he noted was high end F4 level.
View attachment 14672View attachment 14673View attachment 14674View attachment 14675View attachment 14676

Thank you so much for posting this. I was about a mile away from the impacted area. Very scary to an 11-year old who didn't think tornadoes could happen the day after Thanksgiving. Interesting that it was high-end F4. Local media never really reported that information afterward. I knew it had to be quite strong as those were recent well-built expensive houses it blew away like matchsticks. It was probably like the recent Andover twister in appearance (drill bit-type), only stronger. We had no warning and the sirens didn't go off as the tornado hadn't been picked up on radar.
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"The American Red Cross said 53 homes were destroyed and another 157 were damaged. Greene County building regulations supervisor Jim Bresee estimated the storm did at least $5 million to $8 million worth of damage. That's taking homes, not all damaged property, into consideration," he said. "So far I've seen at least 18 Cadillacs and BMWs flattened."
 
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