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Severe Weather 2022

The severe weather season for year 2022 will be?

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Kragg

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It looked like on Spann’s Weather Blog this morning that there was going to be a high in the Caribbean next week that would keep the worst of things west of Dixie alley and he didn’t mention any chance of storms for Southeast. Long term forecasting like this is way out of my lane, but is anyone else seeing that scenario?
 
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It looked like on Spann’s Weather Blog this morning that there was going to be a high in the Caribbean next week that would keep the worst of things west of Dixie alley and he didn’t mention any chance of storms for Southeast. Long term forecasting like this is way out of my lane, but is anyone else seeing that scenario?
If the models hold as week progresses, think you see James spann start to mention it …that high in Caribbean will also help pull in moisture from that region also .
 
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As expected, the 00Z EPS has decidedly trended away from a low-amplitude solution and now favours high-latitude blocking and split flow. The trough axis is also much narrower on Wednesday, despite still being negatively tilted. The trajectory of moisture return prior to the main event also looks to be less favourable than on earlier runs, hence greater CAD over portions of Dixie Alley (eastern extent of warm sector), especially AL/GA. One thing is clear: UL divergence is extremely robust on the latest run and ad verbatim the setup would imply a significant event for portions of OK/KS/MO. The main threat looks to remain north and west of Dixie Alley on the latest EPS.
 
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As expected, the 00Z EPS has decidedly trended away from a low-amplitude solution and now favours high-latitude blocking and split flow. The trough axis is also much narrower on Wednesday, despite still being negatively tilted. The trajectory of moisture return prior to the main event also looks to be less favourable than on earlier runs, hence greater CAD over portions of Dixie Alley (eastern extent of warm sector), especially AL/GA. One thing is clear: UL divergence is extremely robust on the latest run and ad verbatim the setup would imply a significant event for portions of OK/KS/MO. The main threat looks to remain north and west of Dixie Alley on the latest EPS.
Might have to include Arkansas into west ky/ tn. Depending on timing .
 

Fred Gossage

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As expected, the 00Z EPS has decidedly trended away from a low-amplitude solution and now favours high-latitude blocking and split flow. The trough axis is also much narrower on Wednesday, despite still being negatively tilted. The trajectory of moisture return prior to the main event also looks to be less favourable than on earlier runs, hence greater CAD over portions of Dixie Alley (eastern extent of warm sector), especially AL/GA. One thing is clear: UL divergence is extremely robust on the latest run and ad verbatim the setup would imply a significant event for portions of OK/KS/MO. The main threat looks to remain north and west of Dixie Alley on the latest EPS.
The trough is a little more amplified and a little northwest on the overnight Euro ensembles, but there hasn't been a significant/major shift. GFS ensembles have been more northwest than either the Euro ensembles or Canadian ensembles though, and that can't be ignored. But to the Euro ensembles, 576dm at 500mb has been proven for decades to be a good delineator of the south/east edge of the more substantial risk of a severe weather event, and that is through northwest MS into middle TN as early as 18z Wednesday, and into northwest AL by 00z Thu. The face value dryline by 18z Wednesday is almost completely east of Oklahoma, and that doesn't account for mixing that would likely carry the dryline farther east than shown by the lower-res globals when keeping in mind the large-scale EML plume aloft that will advect out as well as the drought over the Plains. The low-level jet is also centered over the eastern 2/3 of Arkansas, through Louisiana, southeastern Missouri, and across the river into west TN/KY by 18z Wednesday, and it is centered completely east of the MS River over IL/IN/KY/TN/MS/AL by 00z Thursday.

There's been an undeniable trend in all the ensemble guidance for this to inch northwest, and if there is also any slowing trend added as we get closer, that would keep a dryline into eastern Oklahoma deeper into the afternoon. However, just using the EPS guidance you used at just face value alone, while the greatest threat is undeniably northwest of central MS and north/central AL, the threat definitely does extend (and is centered) a bit farther east than you outline as early as the afternoon and early evening, and a lower but still appreciable threat definitely extends eastward into the I-65 corridor as far east as Indiana, Kentucky, middle Tennessee, and north Alabama by the overnight. And with the wide and expansive warm sector and what would be a large-scale EML plume that would advect out overtop the warm sector (and has been modeled to do so in the operational models that have an even higher amplitude trough at times than the ensembles), this is not going to be a case where instability just goes away at sunset. This would be a situation where a threat would continue deep into the overnight hours Wednesday, if not the morning hours of Thursday before the wave pulls too far north and the low-level jet pulls away from the heart of the warm sector.

To give room for a slowing trend or wiggle room for any further northwest trend, I would say the elevated threat extends as far west as east OK, east KS, west MO, and northeast TX... but the main threat to me looks to be across the eastern half of Missouri, central and southern Illinois, and down through west Kentucky and Tennessee, through a large part of Arkansas, into northwest Mississippi, and into northern Louisiana... and then a sunset Wednesday to predawn Thursday (lower but appreciable) threat continues as far east as west/southwest Ohio, middle/east Kentucky and Tennessee, north Alabama, and maybe into central Alabama/northwest Georgia if height falls are okay enough. There will be height falls and cyclonic curvature aloft to help with large scale ascent.

There's large scale diffluence, appreciable height falls, and cyclonic curvature aloft way out ahead of the cold front/dryline out over the low-level jet axis and open warm sector. This would not be the type of threat where storms are restricted to be just ahead of the dryline/cold front. Unless there's a problem in the setup that's talked about next...

As synoptically evident as the system is on the large scale, the magnitude of this threat definitely is not still set in stone. That subtle little wave that's being modeled to run out ahead of the trough Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will have to be monitored. Those type of things can often disrupt the low-level jet and low-level convergence from where the large-scale setup would typically have it placed, and can take the convective focus away from the main upper forcing. Usually it centers it east... similar to how it does in these situations in the Southeast where we see a lead subtle wave focus the low-level jet across Georgia and into the Carolinas when the placement of the approaching main upper trough would otherwise have the low-level jet back over MS/TN/AL. If that subtle wave trends more pronounced in the data, that could not only cause LLJ/convergence displacement and disruption for the main event, but possibly cause contamination in the warm sector, and also move the convective focus away from the upper-level support. While those things may make a threat setup farther east/southeast than the synoptics would suggest, they would also likely lower the ceiling of the event as a whole. A lot to work out in the coming days...

EDIT: I replied over here, but I also put this post over in the thread for next week's system. There is a system-specific thread for this now.
 
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Fred Gossage

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I should note that the 00z Euro and 06z GFS show examples of why it would be dangerous for this trough to lift out more northeastward instead of swing directly across eastward and out into the Atlantic. This trough opens the door for energy to the west to slide into the low amplitude weakness left behind, at a lower latitude, and grab the frontal boundary that stalls near the Gulf and bring it back north. 00z Euro had an appreciable Dixie threat after this one on the 15th, and the GFS held it off until that following Monday with the shortwave behind that. The general message is that if this midweek wave lifts more bodily northeast, the door is open for something to target Dixie after either late week, the weekend, or the start of the next week. Lots to watch in the days ahead, and it definitely seems we are not going to be backing away from this active pattern any time soon.
 

Gail

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I’m not saying this year is or will be anything like 2011, but is anyone else slightly nervous that it’s been an active season and 4/27 falls on a Wednesday again?? I’m sure I still have PTSD from that day so that’s probably not helping.
 

Brice Wood

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I’m not saying this year is or will be anything like 2011, but is anyone else slightly nervous that it’s been an active season and 4/27 falls on a Wednesday again?? I’m sure I still have PTSD from that day so that’s probably not helping.
Is there anything showing on 4/27?
 

Edith

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I know the focus is on Iowa today but are there any thought to how tomorrow is trending? With such a large 10% hatched I thought there might be a hint in the initial Day 2 of a possible upgrade in the works but maybe no? Or just too much uncertainty still?


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Personally I think it’s trending down for the area I highlighted. The models still seem to show the atmosphere struggling to recover.
 

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I know the focus is on Iowa today but are there any thought to how tomorrow is trending? With such a large 10% hatched I thought there might be a hint in the initial Day 2 of a possible upgrade in the works but maybe no? Or just too much uncertainty still?


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Latest hrrr now picking up embedded super cells pretty far out ahead main squall line east Arkansas western/ north ms tonite afternoon . Trends keep showing that . Wouldn’t be suprise spc go moderate risk 1230 update here soon.
 
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Last 3 posts should go in the event thread:

 
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It certainly looks as if today is turning out to be quite underwhelming compared to expectations that were voiced three or more days ago. Certainly the much-heralded low-amplitude pattern seems to have metastasised into a high-amplitude, messy, blocky pattern with considerable subtropical influence, at least in time for today’s event. When will we finally see a pattern that supports multiple, intense, long-lived tornado families over a wide area, as opposed to some QLCS-generated, semi-discrete strong tornadoes and/or an isolated discrete performer? I am not talking about all-time events like the two Super Outbreaks et al., but I am talking about events like 26 Apr 1991, 4 May 2003, Super Tuesday, Easter 2020, etc. When will we finally see a springtime pattern that generates one of those events again?
 

KevinH

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It certainly looks as if today is turning out to be quite underwhelming compared to expectations that were voiced three or more days ago. Certainly the much-heralded low-amplitude pattern seems to have metastasised into a high-amplitude, messy, blocky pattern with considerable subtropical influence, at least in time for today’s event. When will we finally see a pattern that supports multiple, intense, long-lived tornado families over a wide area, as opposed to some QLCS-generated, semi-discrete strong tornadoes and/or an isolated discrete performer? I am not talking about all-time events like the two Super Outbreaks et al., but I am talking about events like 26 Apr 1991, 4 May 2003, Super Tuesday, Easter 2020, etc. When will we finally see a springtime pattern that generates one of those events again?
Welcome to the weather. It is not the exact science people think it is. I am not trying to be rude, but your comments (across this forum) always come off as a bit trollish.

Perhaps people should not have any expectations about the weather because it is so unpredictable and fickle? There are NUMEROUS factors that play into what the weather is going to do and nothing is ever 100% guaranteed to happen UNTIL it happens, PERIOD. People gripe and throw a tantrum when the weather does not meet their expectations based on a forecast, a “wish cast” of their own, or far reaching comparisons to past events. It’s annoying.

Chill out lol
 
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