Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[JWard87]

It just needs to be treated if something is on the ground and just shelter until it passes. I’d drop it back to just a TOR and drop the “emergency” wording. You’re setting a bad precedent by allowing it to continue almost 30 minutes after it was issued and it doesn’t appear near the strength it did.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

GR Level 3 algorithm indicating 4" hail with that cell.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Yeah...like I said earlier radar isn't perfect, but at this close proximity a significant tornado would be obvious.

Not always. There was a significant stretch of northern Shelby County, AL where the 3/25/11 "Eagle Point" tornado wasn't that obvious in the radar data because of close proximity to the radar, even when it was doing surveyed EF2-EF3 damage. There are other cases. If anything, very close proximity to the radar could make a signature sometimes hard to spot because of the inherent noise around the radar. However, now that we are getting the storm a little farther removed from the radar so that you can see the storm structure on reflectivity and it has the look that the RFD has surged forward to possibly cut off the circulation, I'd agree that there likely isn't a significant tornado ongoing and very possibly wasn't for the last several minutes the emergency was in place. But don't always think close proximity to a radar will always allow a tornado signature to be obvious. There are more than isolated instances where you'd get into life-threatening trouble thinking that.

It just needs to be treated if something is on the ground and just shelter until it passes. I’d drop it back to just a TOR and drop the “emergency” wording. You’re setting a bad precedent by allowing it to continue almost 30 minutes after it was issued and it doesn’t appear near the strength it did.

They dropped the emergency.

 

[Justin Hindman]

Not always. There was a significant stretch of northern Shelby County, AL where the 3/25/11 "Eagle Point" tornado wasn't that obvious in the radar data because of close proximity to the radar, even when it was doing surveyed EF2-EF3 damage. There are other cases. If anything, very close proximity to the radar could make a signature sometimes hard to spot because of the inherent noise around the radar. However, now that we are getting the storm a little farther removed from the radar so that you can see the storm structure on reflectivity and it has the look that the RFD has surged forward to possibly cut off the circulation, I'd agree that there likely isn't a significant tornado ongoing and very possibly wasn't for the last several minutes the emergency was in place. But don't always think close proximity to a radar will always allow a tornado signature to be obvious. There are more than isolated instances where you'd get into life-threatening trouble thinking that.

They dropped the emergency.

To further what you said Fred, In my history of storm tracking, I’ve one seen a few debris balls when the storm is super close to the radar, they are usually obscured

 

[buckeye05]

Listening to the Faulker County scanner, and something was definitely down and doing damage in the Mayflower area. Hearing reports of roofs ripped off, but thankfully no injuries from what I've heard so far.

 

[JWard87]

It looks like there may be a little back building to the west of that cell. It’s still a fairly favorable environment.

 

[buckeye05]

Honestly a majority of what I'm hearing damage wise from the Mayflower storm sounds like hail damage. Hearing multiple homes with all windows broken and siding stripped off, along with very large hailstones on the ground.

 

[TH2002]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like it's trying to clean out the inflow region and go back to a little more classic mode, but rotation still rather broad. Smaller cell back northwest of Vilonia (other active tornado warning) is actually a little more impressive at the moment.

 

[JBishopwx]

New Severe Watch until 4 AM for the Memphis area, parts of eastern Arkansas, and NW Mississippi.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Imo tomorrow looks pretty good for a 15% in Iowa, pretty good agreement amongst CAMs of supercells in that area in a pretty favorable parameter space for tornadoes
Wednesday is complicated with morning convection and probably won't get sorted out until day of but 00z CAMs develop a broken band of sups traversing AR/TN/KY/MO/MS. If this trend continues and intensifies wouldn't be surprised to see a 15% introduced for that area sometime tomorrow. They may hold back until morning convection and storm mode uncertainties are resolved though. Wednesday, at least, could be a big QLCS day along with supers down south or pre-frontal, kinda your go to Dixie setup except with ample instability.

 

[Austin Dawg]

It doesn't matter if you look at the NAM or the 3K NAM; both look extremely bad for ARK Wed after 21z.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Some latest cam models picking up some super cells out ahead intense line for east Arkansas parts miss. West tn afternoon tomorrow . Meg bullish with morning afd saying some strong tornadoes . Look spc to least hatch the 10 percent tornado threat with short range showing the potential

 

[UK_EF4]

Well... SPC gone Moderate for Iowa

 

[atrainguy]

Creepy screenshot from last night in Little Rock.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

An idea of where I think most things agree the severe will get its worst tomorrow.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I'm honestly surprised they haven't put out a MD yet for the moderate area.

 

[OHWX97]

I'm honestly surprised they haven't put out a MD yet for the moderate area.

Ongoing storms in Iowa and Minnesota are riding along the warm front moving through and likely won't pose much of a severe threat. It's probably going to be at least a few more hours before we'll see a MCD. I don't think we'll see the worst storms until later this evening.

 

[Former Member 1430]

New Day 2

 

[Tennie]

Ongoing storms in Iowa and Minnesota are riding along the warm front moving through and likely won't pose much of a severe threat. It's probably going to be at least a few more hours before we'll see a MCD. I don't think we'll see the worst storms until later this evening.

The latest SPC convective outlook suggests that the main threat might likely begin around 5 PM CDT (give or take).