Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[MattPetrulli]

HRRR has been pretty consistent with developing a single monster supercell in the Ft Dodge, IA area in the evening, along with the line of storms after that showing some discrete characteristics.

 

[Former Member 1430]

HRRR has been pretty consistent with developing a single monster supercell in the Ft Dodge, IA area in the evening, along with the line of storms after that showing some discrete characteristics.
View attachment 13382

For fun this is just in front of that cell developing

 

[OHWX97]

Looking through the recent mesoscale model runs, I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC expands the moderate risk northward to include portions of southern Minnesota.

 

[Gail]

Day 2 Moderate
SPC Day 2 Con Outlook

 

[bwalk]

This is the latest timing of the storms for tomorrow (Wed) night in Alabama per BMX:

 

[UK_EF4]

Really concerned personally about Iowa this evening. Absolute masses of low-level helicity. Given consistent modelling of discrete supercells by HRRR, I am worried as any discrete storm must have very significant tornado potential. Does anyone know when the last time we had discrete storms in this kind of shear profile was? Wouldn't be surprised to see some very intense tornadoes possibly, but hopefully I am wrong.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Really concerned personally about Iowa this evening. Absolute masses of low-level helicity. Given consistent modelling of discrete supercells by HRRR, I am worried as any discrete storm must have very significant tornado potential. Does anyone know when the last time we had discrete storms in this kind of shear profile was? Wouldn't be surprised to see some very intense tornadoes possibly, but hopefully I am wrong. View attachment 13385

Agreed, hopefully we can avoid towns, but I really personally think we have violent tornado potential if HRRR plays out correctly.

 

[Former Member 1430]

Really concerned personally about Iowa this evening. Absolute masses of low-level helicity. Given consistent modelling of discrete supercells by HRRR, I am worried as any discrete storm must have very significant tornado potential. Does anyone know when the last time we had discrete storms in this kind of shear profile was? Wouldn't be surprised to see some very intense tornadoes possibly, but hopefully I am wrong. View attachment 13385

I don’t believe you are.. we will see

 

[warneagle]

18z sounding from Davenport, IA shows impressive wind profiles already in place even well east of the MDT area. The instability wasn't there, but if you take a look at the upstream soundings, it's clear that there's plenty of instability available that will eventually be transported northward into the MDT area (2400 SBCAPE at LZK at 18z). The 12z soundings from Topeka and Omaha were even more extreme in terms of wind shear (0-1km SRH values of 500+).

 

[warneagle]

Low 60s Tds are creeping into southwestern IA now.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

CU field growing in northeast Nebraska along the Platte River. Watch for potential storm initiation off the terrain transition in the vicinity of the Missouri River and NE/IA border.

 

[UK_EF4]

I mean this is a joke... some of the most favourable wind profiles I have ever seen in the path of a modelled discrete supercell. I am seriously worried.

 

[Gail]

Really concerned personally about Iowa this evening. Absolute masses of low-level helicity. Given consistent modelling of discrete supercells by HRRR, I am worried as any discrete storm must have very significant tornado potential. Does anyone know when the last time we had discrete storms in this kind of shear profile was? Wouldn't be surprised to see some very intense tornadoes possibly, but hopefully I am wrong. View attachment 13385

HRRR looks horrible for that area.

 

[UK_EF4]

HRRR looks horrible for that area.

50/50 split of CAMS for initiation. I think that initiation seems quite likely. Could be a long evening for some... potential to be one of the higher end events of the year i think.

 

[TornadoFan]

Dewpoints are already into the 70's in SW Iowa.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah, no doubt at this point that the ingredients will all be in place. Only question is whether there will be a storm to take advantage of it I guess.

 

[Gail]

50/50 split of CAMS for initiation. I think that initiation seems quite likely. Could be a long evening for some... potential to be one of the higher end events of the year i think.

I’m afraid you’re right. Today and tomorrow may both be long ones, unfortunately.

 

[WhirlingWx]

Dewpoints are already into the 70's in SW Iowa.

Those stations have considerably higher DPs than the surrounding ones. Could they be errors? (Not to discount the environment that is otherwise setting itself up there)

 

[UK_EF4]

Those stations have considerably higher DPs than the surrounding ones. Could they be errors?

Look like errors to me - some nearby stations not even into the 60s yet.

 

[Bevo]

I mean this is a joke... some of the most favourable wind profiles I have ever seen in the path of a modelled discrete supercell. I am seriously worried.
View attachment 13388

The two soundings you linked have some of the craziest hodos I’ve seen. Man. I am hoping things don’t pan out as modeled…