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Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

MattPetrulli said:
HRRR has been pretty consistent with developing a single monster supercell in the Ft Dodge, IA area in the evening, along with the line of storms after that showing some discrete characteristics.
View attachment 13382
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For fun this is just in front of that cell developing
 

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Looking through the recent mesoscale model runs, I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC expands the moderate risk northward to include portions of southern Minnesota.
 
Really concerned personally about Iowa this evening. Absolute masses of low-level helicity. Given consistent modelling of discrete supercells by HRRR, I am worried as any discrete storm must have very significant tornado potential. Does anyone know when the last time we had discrete storms in this kind of shear profile was? Wouldn't be surprised to see some very intense tornadoes possibly, but hopefully I am wrong. 1649789167393.png
 
UK_EF4 said:
Really concerned personally about Iowa this evening. Absolute masses of low-level helicity. Given consistent modelling of discrete supercells by HRRR, I am worried as any discrete storm must have very significant tornado potential. Does anyone know when the last time we had discrete storms in this kind of shear profile was? Wouldn't be surprised to see some very intense tornadoes possibly, but hopefully I am wrong. View attachment 13385
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Agreed, hopefully we can avoid towns, but I really personally think we have violent tornado potential if HRRR plays out correctly.
 
UK_EF4 said:
Really concerned personally about Iowa this evening. Absolute masses of low-level helicity. Given consistent modelling of discrete supercells by HRRR, I am worried as any discrete storm must have very significant tornado potential. Does anyone know when the last time we had discrete storms in this kind of shear profile was? Wouldn't be surprised to see some very intense tornadoes possibly, but hopefully I am wrong. View attachment 13385
Click to expand...
I don’t believe you are.. we will see
 
18z sounding from Davenport, IA shows impressive wind profiles already in place even well east of the MDT area. The instability wasn't there, but if you take a look at the upstream soundings, it's clear that there's plenty of instability available that will eventually be transported northward into the MDT area (2400 SBCAPE at LZK at 18z). The 12z soundings from Topeka and Omaha were even more extreme in terms of wind shear (0-1km SRH values of 500+).

1649790748316.png
 
CU field growing in northeast Nebraska along the Platte River. Watch for potential storm initiation off the terrain transition in the vicinity of the Missouri River and NE/IA border.
 
UK_EF4 said:
Really concerned personally about Iowa this evening. Absolute masses of low-level helicity. Given consistent modelling of discrete supercells by HRRR, I am worried as any discrete storm must have very significant tornado potential. Does anyone know when the last time we had discrete storms in this kind of shear profile was? Wouldn't be surprised to see some very intense tornadoes possibly, but hopefully I am wrong. View attachment 13385
Click to expand...
HRRR looks horrible for that area. :(
 
Yeah, no doubt at this point that the ingredients will all be in place. Only question is whether there will be a storm to take advantage of it I guess.
 
UK_EF4 said:
50/50 split of CAMS for initiation. I think that initiation seems quite likely. Could be a long evening for some... potential to be one of the higher end events of the year i think.
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I’m afraid you’re right. Today and tomorrow may both be long ones, unfortunately.
 
TornadoFan said:
Dewpoints are already into the 70's in SW Iowa.
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Those stations have considerably higher DPs than the surrounding ones. Could they be errors? (Not to discount the environment that is otherwise setting itself up there)
 
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