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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

Kory said:
South Central MS and AL....do not ignore tonight and tomorrow morning's potential. Today never looked cellular given the upper level flow is SSW (parallel to the boundary). That shortwave will lift NE tonight and permit a more SW/WSW flow over the narrow warm sector and will permit the QLCS to break up into cells. Some of the shear values are eye opening for overnight....
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Sounds like jan 23 2012
 
I still can't get over how unfounded that 15% TOR and mention of tornadic supercells was, especially after several back to back overzealous outlooks that did not verify. An outlook like today's should have never been issued with shear vectors parallel to the boundary. I always thought that was a fairly basic concept. This in combination with the April 5 Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency makes it seem like the SPC has just been going all out when there is a setup with good thermo, and just sort of glazing over obviously unfavorable kinematics. I just don't get it.
 
Richardjacks said:
I will say I am becoming more concerned about the threat for Alabama, west of I-65 in central and northern areas. I could see one or two storms becoming tornadic. The spatial and time parameters are limited, but a couple or 3 supercells are possible..
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I feel like storms will have a bit of trouble becoming surface based.
 
buckeye05 said:
I still can't get over how unfounded that 15% TOR and mention of tornadic supercells was, especially after several back to back overzealous outlooks that did not verify. An outlook like today's should have never been issued with shear vectors parallel to the boundary. I always thought that was a fairly basic concept. This in combination with the April 5 Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency makes it seem like the SPC has just been going all out when there is a setup with good thermo, and just sort of glazing over obviously unfavorable kinematics. I just don't get it.
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I think it is the case they rather have the public aware and nothing big happen, compared to the reverse, as seen with Huffines from 6 years ago on the archive thread that is running. He got destroyed for underplaying what was about to happen on April 27. Regardless, the SPC has been overplaying way too much this year and would have been fine sticking with an Enhanced risk at best today. That is why this forum, among others, are great to read through leading up to and during an event. I don't trust one source as the absolute on what is going to happen. I know very little on what goes on behind the scenes or keep track, but I wonder who or how many people come together at the SPC when they put out their convective outlooks.
 
It is the nature of the trough that is giving us the weaker instability. There are also some VBV issues on Sunday. The trough closes off and becomes too amplified, leading to warmer mid-level temps, and SSW flow in the mid levels. I do think we still have a severe wx threat Sunday, but it will likely come in the form of a QLCS as the main threat....
 
Blizzzzznado said:
I think it is the case they rather have the public aware and nothing big happen, compared to the reverse, as seen with Huffines from 6 years ago on the archive thread that is running. He got destroyed for underplaying what was about to happen on April 27. Regardless, the SPC has been overplaying way too much this year and would have been fine sticking with an Enhanced risk at best today. That is why this forum, among others, are great to read through leading up to and during an event. I don't trust one source as the absolute on what is going to happen. I know very little on what goes on behind the scenes or keep track, but I wonder who or how many people come together at the SPC when they put out their convective outlooks.
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Huffines = backlash to dashing Dan Satterfield.
 
A lot of times in Dixie when relying on forcing from the boundary and not getting height falls across the whole warm sector with discrete convection, a lot of the dynamics don't get used. But, there is definitely an increasing threat overnight....
 
Kory said:
A lot of times in Dixie when relying on forcing from the boundary and not getting height falls across the whole warm sector with discrete convection, a lot of the dynamics don't get used. But, there is definitely an increasing threat overnight....
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We all know night time tornadoes are the killers
 
I have a friend who lives in Memphis who has quite a severe weather phobia, and I'm trying to explain that the threat isn't worth having a panic attack over but shouldn't be ignored either...This person thinks I'm overly conservative because I told them that 12/23/2015 wouldn't be a major event, but I don't want to lull them into ignoring the warnings from actual mets either.
 
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