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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

MichelleH

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I'm getting really worried about this one...my son is going to be driving up to near Memphis next Friday. Of course, he knows all the safety precautions, but (oddly enough) he is really scared of tornadoes. (Although he would never admit that.) I wish he would cancel his trip, but I don't see that happening as it's been planned for months and he's made a commitment. Ugh....
 
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as a big storm lover and a storm chaser when i ever get a chance that is, this type system is a dream setup though nothing is etched in stone yet... but a nightmare for the public to deal with... if things hold as modeled now, this one means buisness yall... got to watch this system closely... sure there going to be some changes as sampling comes in better, but its amazing and alrming at the consistency this is showing this far out... not to compare the two systems, but it was bout week out when things started holding consistent for the 4 27 11 event...
 
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So is this looking like a threat for Eastearn AR and points westward or does this look to be expanding eastward also?
lot to do how the trough gets ejected out... if 12z euro verifies... going be pretty expanded area effected... from eastern ok , east texas , northern la. midsouth to portions tn valley... i know that a pretty fairly large area... but all need to watch this as week plays out next week
 
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Xenesthis

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for a moment I thought I was reading the old 4/27/2011 thread

Ok hard for me to say this but given my data for TNI has to be adjusted I am not surprised this is coming to fruition. I estimated the TNI for the last couple of months and it spiked. Making the dates change for an event of this nature. I will be curious of how this pans out but I suspect that after I actually put in the correct data that my charts will change and the date will make more sense. If there is indeed a correlation in my data then this will be the event I anticipated which is why I have been so adamant with other events. I had the same feeling Richard about this feeling like 4/27/11. I will update my information in the A.M. This looks bad no doubt. How Far East will it expand? Well given it would be May 1st history suggests that the SE would most likely be spared. I am not so sure that will be the case
 

warneagle

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Well, 12z GFS, I've gotta hand it to ya, I don't think I've ever seen a 17.6 0-3 EHI before.
 
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So is this looking like a threat for Eastearn AR and points westward or does this look to be expanding eastward also?
While it's basically impossible to predict exact boundaries this far out, even for the most experienced meteorologists, my personal guesstimate is that there will be something of a threat in western AR, especially on Friday, but that threat will probably drop away pretty quickly east of the Arkansas River.
 
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stilll quite concerned late next week for large scale event, espcially western part of midsouth thus far... todays 12z euro had some nasty parameters on it...
 

Daryl

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day6prob.gif


Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 6...
The ECMWF and GFS solutions are in better agreement for Friday/Day
6, moving an upper-level low in the Four Corners region as a
mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Strong moisture
advection is forecast to take place in the southern Plains where
both solutions show a well-developed dryline by late afternoon. As
the exit region of the mid-level jet moves out into the southern and
central Plains late Friday afternoon, thunderstorms should develop
along the dryline and move eastward across parts of Kansas and
Oklahoma. The mid-level jet is forecast to couple with the low-level
jet creating deep-shear profiles favorable for supercells,
tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. A higher-end severe
weather event could occur Friday afternoon and evening in the
southern and central Plains. For this reason, have added a 30
percent contour inside the original 15 percent contour.

...Saturday/Day 7...
The medium-range models move the upper-level system across the
central Rockies on Saturday/Day 7 as the mid-level jet core ejects
northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across much of the region due to strong
large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough. This
along with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear should
be enough for a severe weather event across parts of the southern
and central Plains, where a 15 percent contour has been added.
 
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per 12z euro today... would spell big trouble for the upper south late next week... ark. northern ms ... west mid tn.. west ky... this could get interesting for even more larger area.
 
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