Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

[Taylor Campbell]

The idea seems to be firmly entrenched that things are going to become quite noisy, and violent in the mid-section of the country during this time period.

 

[ARCC]

The 12z Euro is close to being both classic and nasty at 216hrs.

 

[KG4KBU]

As for next weeks threat when does it affect the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions?

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[tennessee storm chaser]

As for next weeks threat when does it affect the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions?

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Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk

As for next weeks threat when does it affect the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions?

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Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk

BU, post: 6182, member: 286"]As for next weeks threat when does it affect the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions?

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Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk[/QUOT

As for next weeks threat when does it affect the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions?

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Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk

lot depends if this comes out as one piece of energy or impulses... fairly broad base trough coming which has been know for some significant tornado outbreaks... areas frist to get in on the action appear east texas east central ok into northern louisiana , western ark... the threat looks to slide over the midsouth to include eastern ark, west tn. northern ms... late friday... interesting see what happens further east... system has one large nice warm sector with dps nearing 70 to lower ohio valley... this one needs to be closely watched folks.

 

[Daryl]

Right in the heart of tornado alley.

SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

...Friday/Day 8...
The ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement in the western U.S.,
developing a vigorous upper-level trough in the Four Corners region.
This coincides with strong moisture advection across the Great
Plains. The synoptic setup which the medium-range models have been
forecasting for a couple days, could result in a significant severe
weather event on Friday into Friday night across parts of the
southern and central Plains with tornadoes, large hail and wind
damage possible. Due to the potential for a higher-end event on
Friday, have added a 15 percent contour where model consensus places
the greatest chance of severe weather.

 

[Timhsv]

If the ECMWF comes close to verifying, BIG trouble lies ahead towards next Friday/Saturday..

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

If the ECMWF comes close to verifying, BIG trouble lies ahead towards next Friday/Saturday..

Very well spoken tim...

 

[warneagle]

06z GFS suggests a threat even further south than that 15% area, all the way down into south-central TX.

Pretty strong wording in the Day 8 discussion, already talking about this as a potentially higher-end event.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

12zgfs has one mean looking broad trough during this period... Starting to favor a Euro like solution ...this is going have to be watched closely folks

 

[ARCC]

12zgfs has one mean looking broad trough during this period... Starting to favor a Euro like solution ...this is going have to be watched closely folks

Yeah, it's getting close.

 

[TornadoFan]

Yikes.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I was expecting more PDS TOR soundings with a look like that...looks like it is introducing some CIN which is tempering the STP.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

12z Euro not backing down what so ever ... what great height falls its showing.

 

[ARCC]

12z Euro not backing down what so ever ... what great height falls its showing.

Verbatim the Euro is a tornado outbreak for a very large area. A massive area to be exact.

 

[gangstonc]

Verbatim the Euro is a tornado outbreak for a very large area. A massive area to be exact.

I'm at work and can't see. Would you mind describing the massive area?

 

[warneagle]

I'm at work and can't see. Would you mind describing the massive area?

Kansas City to the Mexican border and east to the Mississippi.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Today's 12z Euro has a pda look over large area to be honest

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Kansas City to the Mexican border and east to the Mississippi.

Pds. Sorry

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The 12z EURO was an outlier of several of its previous runs, and of the GFS. But, if we start to see a trend in that direction, which is possible. I'd be really worried. Not that this threat doesn't already look quite bad without that run, but a setup like that shown on the 12z EURO could extend the seriousness of this threat over a much larger area.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Pds. Sorry

Yeah I wouldn't be too surprised if there was a moderate and/or high risk around next Thursday-Friday, and probably a PDS watch at some point if the 12z Euro verifies.