Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[sak]

I have seen lines like this in this kind of setup have very bad outcomes.

Really? I'm looking at it the radar across eastern MS and west central AL and am having a hard time envisioning a really bad outcome, especially given how worked over north and central AL are from prior rainfall and a general lack of instability.

 

[Equus]

And just as I feared, the entire line is starting to spit out rotation

 

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Surprised there's not a warning on the cell just NE of Selma - looks like there's decent rotation and a hail core starting to put itself together. Well ahead of the line and isolated; could be the storm to watch.

 

[warneagle]

There is yet another supercell in the Selma area that might be trying to get its act together. Rotation is very broad for now but it's out there by itself.

 

[warneagle]

And just as I feared, the entire line is starting to spit out rotation

Yeah you can tell the LLJ is starting to ramp up.

 

[MikeP]

Storms look to be breaking out ahead of the main line as well. Getting pretty breezy in my backyard. LLJ I'm assuming is finally doing what was modeled....

 

[sak]

And just as I feared, the entire line is starting to spit out rotation

Hasn't basically every storm has been rotating today as they come over from MS into AL today?

 

[Evan]

That tor war just issued suggests bmx is looking at the hrrr for short term warning guidance

Because of the track of that previous UH streak on the 23z?

 

[MikeP]

And right on cue - Sumpter/Greene

 

[Richardjacks]

Because of the track of that previous UH streak on the 23z?

Yes

 

[Richardjacks]

Any of these could become an intense supercell.

 

[sak]

Storms look to be breaking out ahead of the main line as well. Getting pretty breezy in my backyard. LLJ I'm assuming is finally doing what was modeled....

Hasn't the modeling been pretty good for this event? A little more junk convection than expected which has probably greatly limited the overall impact of the event, but really, the modeling showed a lot of scattered storms ahead of a QLCS and that's pretty much exactly what we've gotten...?

 

[Evan]

Really? I'm looking at it the radar across eastern MS and west central AL and am having a hard time envisioning a really bad outcome, especially given how worked over north and central AL are from prior rainfall and a general lack of instability.

Instability is marginal but sufficient and it was always projected to be on the lower end by this point in time. It's the LLJ kicking in that is the concern.

 

[speedbump305]

Any of these could become an intense supercell.

EASILY for sure. the main line does look pretty nastu

 

[kcyalater]

Instability is marginal but sufficient and it was always projected to be on the lower end by this point in time. It's the LLJ kicking in that is the concern.

This. The SPC isn’t just maintaining a high risk for kicks and giggles.

 

[Evan]

Dunno why that area west of Red Bay isn't getting a TOR.

 

[Richardjacks]

Near Birmingham right now

 

[Kory]

VAD out of BMX still shows on the order of 400 m2/s2 0-1km shear. All that will take is a little instability to do some damage....

 

[StormStalker]

Getting a pretty intense storm here now. Lightning is constant. I'm a little worried about the area west of Red Bay Evan mentioned earlier.

 

[Jacob]

Two interesting spots in the line in Tuscaloosa. Wouldn't surprise me if either spit out a small tornado, though based on current radar they'd be brief and small.