Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[speedbump305]

I fear this is about to get very serious. I am familiar with this look.

what do you mean?

 

[Equus]

Let's remember that tonight's event was always forecast to be the big one and the evening activity didn't start uptrending until recently; it may be a QLCS but we're probably going to get several tornadoes out of it, and being after dark and much harder to warn for, those are the ones that kill

 

[MattW]

Atlanta area should not let its guard down early tomorrow morning. This sounding is about 5 miles north of LaGrange, GA at 06:00 EDT. This seems to be from a particular spot within the line, but it shows what the line is capable of.

 

[WhirlingWx]

How do you see this before it is even updated on the SPC website? LOL

SPC Products Page

Hope this helps. It's where a lot of people here and on twitter post the SPC outlook graphics that look smoothed out, and without the cities and stuff.

 

[Richardjacks]

@Richardjacks please elaborate?

I have seen lines like this in this kind of setup have very bad outcomes.

 

[sak]

Oh it's definitely underperformed compared to the higher ceiling potential, we probably didn't get a single violent or long tracked tornado; I think it classifies as verification regardless due to the quantity of tornadoes and the fact that some were pretty strong. I can totally see where the bust calls come from as today never got higher than 66 here thus far with heavy rain but take that monster wedge that crossed the state line in SW AL and place it over, say, downtown Birmingham and people would be singing a different tune.

Yeah this is another good point. The exact path of storms really matters when it comes to how outbreaks are remembered. If the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham 2011 EF4 tornado travels 10 miles south of where it did and lifted before it reached the western suburbs of BHM instead of on the NE side of town, then that would have been a forgotten storm. April 27, 2011, hit a lot of towns directly. Now, granted, with as many EF3s+ that formed that day, it was almsot inevitable some would get hit... but Hackleburg/Phil Campbell tornado could have traveled 2 miles south of where it did and both of those towns would have been spared.

 

[sak]

I actually do hope we get another warning or two in the BHM viewing area. I quite enjoy wall-to-wall coverage on-air from Spann. Even better if the storms don't drop any significant tornadoes. But gimme the warnings so he goes on-air!

 

[speedbump305]

Let's remember that tonight's event was always forecast to be the big one and the evening activity didn't start uptrending until recently; it may be a QLCS but we're probably going to get several tornadoes out of it, and being after dark and much harder to warn for, those are the ones that kill

You have a point. Plus the earlier storms did produce damage and i’m sure we will get the ratings soon. Also i know i’ve said this, but the outbreak as a whole is far from over. There’s a moderate risk in another part of the country

 

[TH2002]

The cell near Okolona MS is showing impressive rotation on radar

 

[Evan]

Oh it's definitely underperformed compared to the higher ceiling potential, we probably didn't get a single violent or long tracked tornado; I think it classifies as verification regardless due to the quantity of tornadoes and the fact that some were pretty strong. I can totally see where the bust calls come from as today never got higher than 66 here thus far with heavy rain but take that monster wedge that crossed the state line in SW AL and place it over, say, downtown Birmingham and people would be singing a different tune.

I've seen it said many times that a Moderate with a few lingering questions often ends up more dangerous for Dixie than the relatively infrequent High risk days we see (04/27/11 being one of the exceptions obviously).

Some of that is probably a bit psychological as High risk days always receive amplified coverage and expectations are MUCH greater. 04/08/98 was the first High risk I really remember getting lots of coverage and of course it verified.

 

[akt1985]

New severe thunderstorm warning for Marion, Lamar and Fayette Counties in Alabama.

 

[MikeP]

Line already looks more potent just in the last 15 minutes. I think Spann is about to be back on....

 

[KevinH]

One option is:

SPC Products Page

Bookmarked.

Thank you!

 

[Equus]

Yeah this is another good point. The exact path of storms really matters when it comes to how outbreaks are remembered. If the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham 2011 EF4 tornado travels 10 miles south of where it did and lifted before it reached the western suburbs of BHM instead of on the NE side of town, then that would have been a forgotten storm. April 27, 2011, hit a lot of towns directly. Now, granted, with as many EF3s+ that formed that day, it was almsot inevitable some would get hit... but Hackleburg/Phil Campbell tornado could have traveled 2 miles south of where it did and both of those towns would have been spared.

Yeah today has performed pretty well from a numerical standpoint but been very mild so far on the impact standpoint aside from parts of Brookwood, Moundville, Chilton, so it's definitely feels underwhelming compared to most high risk events. I gotta say I'm surprised I got stuck with junky cool rain all day but that's certainly not a bad thing. I feel that this event is gonna be one of the ones to lead to complacency simply because we didn't get the widespread death and destruction many of our other red-letter days have gotten and be seen as a missed forecast... kind of a no win situation

 

[speedbump305]

I've seen it said many times that a Moderate with a few lingering questions often ends up more dangerous for Dixie than the relatively infrequent High risk days we see (04/27/11 being one of the exceptions obviously).

Some of that is probably a bit psychological as High risk days always receive amplified coverage and expectations are MUCH greater. 04/08/98 was the first High risk I really remember getting lots of coverage and of course it verified.

tomorrow could get really bad as well.

 

[KevinH]

I have seen lines like this in this kind of setup have very bad outcomes.

Oh :/

 

[speedbump305]

Line already looks more potent just in the last 15 minutes. I think Spann is about to be back on....

Oh yes for sure. The line is really ramping up and it looks like things will get ugly

 

[GA Stormchaser]

new Tornado Warning near Geiger

 

[Richardjacks]

That tor war just issued suggests bmx is looking at the hrrr for short term warning guidance

 

[Evan]

Yeah today has performed pretty well from a numerical standpoint but been very mild so far on the impact standpoint aside from parts of Brookwood, Moundville, Chilton, so it's definitely feels underwhelming compared to most high risk events. I gotta say I'm surprised I got stuck with junky cool rain all day but that's certainly not a bad thing. I feel that this event is gonna be one of the ones to lead to complacency simply because we didn't get the widespread death and destruction many of our other red-letter days have gotten and be seen as a missed forecast... kind of a no win situation

I've been thinking about complacency quite a bit as this thread has evolved over the past couple of hours. We could have another potent system in a few weeks yet have a broad swathe of the population downplay the risk because of a general perception that today underperformed. And, of course, today's event isn't even over. But, this thread is proof of how some people view it that way and I think that's fairly common among those who aren't weather buffs.

I've often wondered if 04/27/11 would've been even worse if 04/15 hadn't scared so many people. Inverse would be how serious people took even slight risk days for a long time after 04/27.