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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Melissa

Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

Tornado Warning for the storm northeast of Selma appears to have expired after weakening.
 
One thing that concerns me about the line, given the amount of shear present tonight, will be its ability to drop a bunch of small tornadoes without much warning. Check the latest velocity image out of GWX, just west of the radar. That's likely two small tornadoes that just spun up.
 
Justin Hindman said:
Seems like the line isn’t packing too much of a punch. It’s looks ahead of schedule just on radar. Wonder if the low level jet will catch up and Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency them into discrete super cells
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I'm not sure that will happen. Heck... even if it does happen, I'm not sure how violent those storms will get, especially north of a line from like Meridian to Prattville to Alex City. Most of north and central AL has gotten an awful lot of rain and has a fairly worked over atmosphere. There are still a few counties west of Montgomery and south of Tuscaloosa that I'd be concerned about. I don't think areas north of I-22 and north of I-20 NE of Birmingham should be overly concerned. Cautious, yes, and pay attention of course. But odds of multiple violent tornadoes? I'd say very low.
 
I really do want to see more damage pics. not because i love death and destruction, i want to see if i can determine the ratings. Does anyone have any damage pics?
 
Jacob said:
One thing that concerns me about the line, given the amount of shear present tonight, will be its ability to drop a bunch of small tornadoes without much warning. Check the latest velocity image out of GWX, just west of the radar. That's likely two small tornadoes that just spun up.
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Good point
 
sak said:
Not sure why you think the main event still has not occurred yet. I get that you are in Georgia, but the supercells that occurred this afternoon into the evening *IS* the main event. The QLCS about to enter Alabama certainly bears watching but right now does not look overwhelming.
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As the LLJ increases, the line is expected to slow down and become a broken line of supercells.
 
Kory said:
Not sure there will be enough instability in the tank. We shall see.
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Instability is definitely going to be marginal at best. But high shear in AL always tends to bring surprises.
 
RollTide18 said:
As the LLJ increases, the line is expected to slow down and become a broken line of supercells.
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I wouldn't say expected. More that it is one possibility -- with the other possibility being that it stays linear which likely has a greater chance of happening than seeing a discrete breakup.
 
Natural selection will eventually take care of stupidity.

Meanwhile, I'll be glad a violent tornado didn't sweep away my house (so far) and be able to sleep peacefully for the first time since this event came onto the mid range guidance. Big relief. I feel like there wouldn't be this many (incorrect) Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency calls if this had stayed a moderate and the central MS portion wasn't included.
 
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