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Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

speedbump305 said:
There is plenty of time, and no offense, but how do you know if there wasn’t violent tornadoes? we haven’t even seen the damage and the risk didnt Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. the event produced what it was gonna do. No offense yet again. and the outbreak will probably produce its main event tonight and there will be another outbreak tomorrow in another part of the country.
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i don’t know for a fact. i think i’m being pretty realistic though. do you think there have been any violent long-track tornado paths today? i haven’t seen more than a couple spots that suggest even EF3 damage. So far.

And no I don’t think the “main event” will be later tonight - at least not tornadoes in the high risk area. Violent long-track tornadoes are exceedingly rare in a line along a front. If the line does break apart I suppose it is possible we get a few... but I think it is more likely we don’t see that pan out.

Junk convection overperformed across the northern halves of MS/AL. storms were constantly running into each other and the atmosphere was not as powder-keggy as it typically is on a high risk day.
 
HRR shows 55-65 kt winds overspreading between HSV & BHM over the next 1-4 hrs. May introduce more to the mix.


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sak said:
i don’t see any evidence that any tornado has been on the ground for more than like 10 miles so far. but we’ll find out all about that tomorrow and friday.
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Selma had a tornado warning for a while
sak said:
i don’t know for a fact. i think i’m being pretty realistic though. do you think there have been any violent long-track tornado paths today? i haven’t seen more than a couple spots that suggest even EF3 damage. So far.

And no I don’t think the “main event” will be later tonight - at least not tornadoes in the high risk area. Violent long-track tornadoes are exceedingly rare in a line along a front. If the line does break apart I suppose it is possible we get a few... but I think it is more likely we don’t see that pan out.

Junk convection overperformed across the northern halves of MS/AL. storms were constantly running into each other and the atmosphere was not as powder-keggy as it typically is on a high risk day.
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You were correct. i’m very sorry for my opinion. i thought you meant the whole outlook as a whole.
 
Not sure if it's any value at this stage, but here's the last HRRR run's UH Swaths.
1616027392704.png
 
speedbump305 said:
Selma had a tornado warning for a while

You were correct. i’m very sorry for my opinion. i thought you meant the whole outlook as a whole.
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Yeah I mean just the sheer number of storms that formed and rotated and dropped shgort lived EF0s and EF1s made the overall risk verify, though it may have been placed a little too far northwest. Shift the high risk about 50-75 miles southeast would have been a little more accurate. Obviously we aren't perfect yet.

But I do think we underperformed expectations on the overall violence of the outbreak. This is definitely a good thing though. Also, the fact very few towns of note have been hit is helping make the outbreak look not so terrible.

Also, not really ready to write a final post-mortem on this as there is still a good chance we will see more warnings and possibly more tornadoes. One EF3 moving through a populated area like Montgomery or Auburn-Opelika, or Birmingham and the impact of the day looks a lot different even if meteorologically it isn't that different.
 
Bama Ravens said:
That would include UH streaks from the storms that have already occurred, though.
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Pairing it with the model reflectivity, the UH seemed to be related to cells and storms in MS.
 
KevinH said:
We still have about 12 hours to go and the "main event" has not occurred yet
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Not sure why you think the main event still has not occurred yet. I get that you are in Georgia, but the supercells that occurred this afternoon into the evening *IS* the main event. The QLCS about to enter Alabama certainly bears watching but right now does not look overwhelming.
 
Seems like the line isn’t packing too much of a punch. It’s looks ahead of schedule just on radar. Wonder if the low level jet will catch up and Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency them into discrete super cells
 
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