Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[Tennie]

to be fair, 45% doesn’t have anything to do with intensity or even track length (directly). just the chances of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. EF0/EF1’s count too.

Someone on the other forum made a post going into more detail about that. Here's a link to it:

March 17-18 Severe Weather Event

www.americanwx.com

 

[sak]

It seems like the line is moving fast. Looks like it could be to Birmingham by 11pm.

yup. i was criticized for calling the afternoon storms that were ongoing the main event and noting we were just a few hours ahead of schedule. seems pretty clear that was the case.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Since the second wave in MS is not producing tornadoes will that leave the conditions more favorable for the final line of storms?

Isn’t that line the final line?

 

[sak]

Isn’t that line the final line?

yes it is

 

[Austin Dawg]

Isn’t that line the final line?

It may be but I thought the last line would be later tonight. Or could there still be another line later?

 

[Bama Ravens]

It may be but I thought the last line would be later tonight. Or could there still be another line later?

I think the final line is just a couple of hours ahead of schedule.

 

[Kory]

Everything about this event seems ahead of schedule.

 

[172556]

First picture looks like a swept away block foundation home. Depending on whether or not the home was anchored, this is probably EF3 or EF4 damage. Not sure about the empty foundation in the second picture.

Appears it may be a manufactured home on blocks with a masonry skirt from streetview. The slab in the second picture is a parking pad. That said, there appears to be extensive tree damage so it was likely pretty nasty.

 

[Tennie]

Everything about this event seems ahead of schedule.

Feels like Mother Nature is trying to do some kind of tornado outbreak speedrun or thereabouts.

 

[RainyMorning]

The final line should be coming with the cold front.

 

[Bama Ravens]

The final line should be coming with the cold front.

There’s absolutely nothing behind the line that is currently in eastern MS, though.

 

[Chris3024]

That was exciting. Rotation passed north of me in cullman

 

[MikeP]

Well so far the line back west seems fairly well behaved all things considered. Can't help but wonder if the sun setting, with the line maybe outrunning the better dynamics, we might dodge that 'bullet' somewhat. Looks to be some pretty hefty straight-line winds however. Fingers crossed things remain a bit tempered.....

 

[TornadoFan]

Selma storm looks like it's getting its act together.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Counties behind the line in Eastern MS are being cleared from the watch, it appears. Western MS doesn’t have a watch.

 

[speedbump305]

i don’t see any evidence that any tornado has been on the ground for more than like 10 miles so far. but we’ll find out all about that tomorrow and friday.

Selma had a tornado warning for a while

 

[speedbump305]

The nighttime storms seem like they will bring a HECK of a punch. Really curious to see all the ratings when they come jn

 

[champal3003]

PDS watch just issued.

 

[Mr. Clark]

Tornado Watch just issued for parts of North AL and NE MS.

 

[Equus]

If we don't get the LLJ aligning with the MS linear cells, threat could be tempered a good bit