Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[Clancy]

New Tornado Watch as well. 80/80 tornado probs.

 

[cheestaysfly]

I think it’s going to be a struggle getting quality instability that far north. That doesn’t eliminate all severe wx threats.

What about the Florence area?

 

[Evan]

Cell near Nauvoo may be getting going soon as well.

 

[Evan]

New Tornado Watch.

 

[Clancy]

Another Tornado Warning, including Selma.

 

[Evan]

TOR south of Selma.

 

[MattW]

Selma again? Oh dear...

 

[Clancy]

Selma again? Oh dear...

Yeah, they're certainly not having a great day in terms of warnings.

 

[Kory]

An interesting pair of cells about to cross the state line from MS into AL. Will be interesting if they can tap some of the surface-based instability. There is certainly plenty of shear in place.

 

[Tennie]

It's like some kind of tornado frat party in southwest Alabama or something!

 

[speedbump305]

the selma storm could impact the city

 

[Equus]

Suffice to say, this is NOT a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, just didn't have anything especially long tracked to this point. I'd say the 45% was a weird call though.

 

[BayouWeatherGeek]

Spann is back live on ABC 33/40.

 

[speedbump305]

Suffice to say, this is NOT a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, just didn't have anything especially long tracked to this point. I'd say the 45% was a weird call though.

i think the storms tonight could be long tracked. some of the storms have been long tracked. Selma and Tuscaloosa seemed to be long tracked

 

[sak]

Suffice to say, this is NOT a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, just didn't have anything especially long tracked to this point. I'd say the 45% was a weird call though.

to be fair, 45% doesn’t have anything to do with intensity or even track length (directly). just the chances of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. EF0/EF1’s count too.

 

[Bama Ravens]

It seems like the line is moving fast. Looks like it could be to Birmingham by 11pm.

 

[sak]

i think the storms tonight could be long tracked. some of the storms have been long tracked. Selma and Tuscaloosa seemed to be long tracked

i don’t see any evidence that any tornado has been on the ground for more than like 10 miles so far. but we’ll find out all about that tomorrow and friday.

 

[MikeP]

'Richard, Fred, Kory to the red courtesy phone'. Current forecast thoughts moving forward through the next several hrs?

 

[speedbump305]

i honestly feel like tomorrow could be a high risk as well. HUGE MODERATE Risk. ingredients well defined as well

 

[Austin Dawg]

An interesting pair of cells about to cross the state line from MS into AL. Will be interesting if they can tap some of the surface-based instability. There is certainly plenty of shear in place.

Since the second wave in MS is not producing tornadoes will that leave the conditions more favorable for the final line of storms?