Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread

[Equus]

New runs not backin' down

 

[MichelleH]

Thanks. That is crazy looking. I really wish my. daughter and her girls were back home in Round Rock. Mom, brother, and cousins are in Smithville, Fulton and Tupelo MS and Holly Pond, AL.

I hate days like this,

I do too! I'm about 20 minutes from Holly Pond. If it makes you feel any better, tornadoes in Cullman County typically don't go over that area. (With the exception of 4/27/11, but that was an extraordinary day.) Tornadoes in this area typically start or come from the Smith Lake area and go through the city of Cullman. Not all, but that is a common path. Although lately, there have been more and more coming close to my area in Hanceville. I'm really, really, really not looking forward to Saturday.

 

[ARCC]

The 18z NAM 3km shows discrete cells forming between 15z - 18z as the line approaches AL. Discrete cells continue in front of the main qlcs as it progresses across AL, even into GA. View attachment 2310
View attachment 2311
View attachment 2312
Of course this little plot is disturbing......
View attachment 2313

The 3km NAM may be wrong, it wouldn't surprise me because I hate it, but that is actually very weak helicity tracks and those discrete cells are nothing more than garbage convection and could be elevated as depicted in that run.

Like I said, not at all saying it's correct, but if it is the tornado threat is lessened by quite a bit.

 

[Richardjacks]

I knew there was an event in the past that I think is in someways similar- I remember this day well, the squall line formed back in Mississippi during the morning show and it came through Bham around lunchtime.

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_02162001

 

[Equus]

Yep remember that one vividly, some of the strongest wind I've been in at home. Don't want one of those again.

 

[Gail]

I knew there was an event in the past that I think is in someways similar- I remember this day well, the squall line formed back in Mississippi during the morning show and it came through Bham around lunchtime.

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_02162001


View attachment 2316

View attachment 2317

I remember that. I was pregnant with my now 18 year old son, huddled in the hallway at the MSU Development Office where I worked. When I drove home to Columbus later, we were without power and didn't get it back for 3 weeks! My husband worked on the base and had to stay the entire night on base. It was terrible!

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

Forecast from Dothan TV Station. I like his idea better than SPC as they have all of South AL in hatched 30% risk. NAM seems to agree with him and shows storms weakening as the cross South Alabama while stronger storms are there to the North.

Video

www.wtvy.com

 

[_melody_]

I do too! I'm about 20 minutes from Holly Pond. If it makes you feel any better, tornadoes in Cullman County typically don't go over that area. (With the exception of 4/27/11, but that was an extraordinary day.) Tornadoes in this area typically start or come from the Smith Lake area and go through the city of Cullman. Not all, but that is a common path. Although lately, there have been more and more coming close to my area in Hanceville. I'm really, really, really not looking forward to Saturday.

I am in Brushy Pond, just to the south of the lake, which is a common path. It has been hit many times throughout my lifetime. I am definitely NOT looking forward to Saturday.

 

[Timhsv]

Andy this is interesting of the SPC HREF Ensembles....

Yeah this is looking very problematic. All of the CAMs are coming in with more of a discrete/semi-discrete mode tomorrow with strong UH tracks. Also, a few of them are indicating downscale growth of the QLCS later on in LA/AR with the potential for more supercells.

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

New SPC outlook expands the Moderate risk area for damaging winds

 

[Smokedevil]

Thanks. That is crazy looking. I really wish my. daughter and her girls were back home in Round Rock. Mom, brother, and cousins are in Smithville, Fulton and Tupelo MS and Holly Pond, AL.

I hate days like this,

I live near fulton, and work in monroe county in EMS.

 

[TornadoFan]

Latest HRRR seems to shift the threat further west into the Oklahoma City area from what I can tell.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I can’t link it right now, wow at the latest SPC MCD. A large eastward expansion of the MDT risk is coming into MS. Also, the BMX morning AFD is very well done. Excellent explanation about the CAPE values and any near-surface stable layers.

 

[Gail]

Expanded Moderate coming due to winds

 

[Kory]

Funny how those who were talking about how crappy CAPE are now not acknowledging the mesoscale models showing >1000 SBCAPE and >700 MLCAPE. Not sure why we still take the NAM at 72 hours for face value...

 

[Richardjacks]

The large mdt risk really gives them the opportunity to go more detail and hone in on a smaller high risk area later today

 

[Kory]

Also, if convection has a UH streak, it’s not junk convection. That’s literally the opposite of what junk convection is.

 

[rolltide_130]

The 3km NAM may be wrong, it wouldn't surprise me because I hate it, but that is actually very weak helicity tracks and those discrete cells are nothing more than garbage convection and could be elevated as depicted in that run.

Like I said, not at all saying it's correct, but if it is the tornado threat is lessened by quite a bit.

I'm not really understanding the extreme NAM bias you've displayed leading up to this event to be honest. The NAM has gotten SCHOOLED by the other CAM models in recent cool season events, and just like ahead of 12/16 it's already been proven to vastly underestimate the thermodynamic profile ahead of this system to our west, and that trend will continue into AL.

Only looking at the NAM thermos during cool season events is a surefire way to get unpleasantly surprised when the event you've spent the last few days grasping at straws trying to downplay in ways that defy basic meteorological logic suddenly pans out, and everyone but you was expecting it...

 

[rolltide_130]

Already over 2000 J/KG of SBCAPE across the Dallas metro this morning per their 12z sounding. This event is not going to go quietly..

 

[Richardjacks]

I am thinking there will be a handful of discrete cells ahead of the line developing near the AL/Miss state line, probably south of I59.