Equus
Member
I hope people don't underestimate the QLCS tornado threat, with the wind fields we have parts of the line could be quite prolific in that regard. Embedded, probably, in swaths of straight line damaging wind.
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Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread
- Thread starter Kory
- Start date
Bevo
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That 75% is either right on DFW or close to it? This is an interesting development considering DFW wasn't much in the equation until the past couple of days. NWS FW bulletin was kinda ominous too. I really hope the forecast changes a bit in the positive (i.e. less scary) direction for the metroplex.
TornadoFan
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Latest HRRR shows dewpoints in the mid and upper 60's near the Dallas area around 22Z. 
Kory
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HRRR ain’t messing around. That is some serious warm air advection.
TornadoFan
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Yeah this is looking very problematic. All of the CAMs are coming in with more of a discrete/semi-discrete mode tomorrow with strong UH tracks. Also, a few of them are indicating downscale growth of the QLCS later on in LA/AR with the potential for more supercells.
warneagle
Member
Hey neighbor! I’m from Warner Robins (although I don’t live there anymore). Y'all are outside the most significant severe threat because the strongest instability will be to your west but the low-level wind fields are still pretty impressive so you could still be looking at a not-insubstantial damaging wind threat. Not the high end damaging wind event they're facing further west in MS/AL but obviously still bears monitoring, especially given that it'll be after dark there.
warneagle
Member
The LLJ on Saturday is just gonna be obscene. An 85kt LLJ in Mississippi is mind blowing.
Austin Dawg
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Please post anything in MS and AL. I have family in Madison for a wedding and other family in NE MS and Central AL.
warneagle
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Just a couple of screengrabs here, trying to avoid cherry-picking but this is pretty consistent across the models and has been for some time now. At the very least this has the potential to be a significant straight-line wind event.
GA Stormchaser
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The 18z NAM 3km shows discrete cells forming between 15z - 18z as the line approaches AL. Discrete cells continue in front of the main qlcs as it progresses across AL, even into GA. 
Of course this little plot is disturbing......
Of course this little plot is disturbing......
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- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
HRRR 6am Sat 6am Td's, that is a good bit higher than NAM
Kory
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ARW is armageddon. Mesoscale models say this is a significant threat and should NOT be ignored based on storm mode.
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- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
yea, looking at oz model and considering trends we have seen, this will be a big deal. I want to say the highest strong tornado risk will between Hwy 278 and a line from Demopolis to Montgomery....Birmingham/Tusc could be in the sweet spot for shear and cape...either way this looks like a high impact widespread wind event with lots of power outages and some roof damage along with trees down.
Scott81
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- Attalla, AL
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- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
The wrf has the td getting up to 69 in TCL, with these dynamics, this is just crazy. Sorry, just feasting over these runs tonight
I've heard some crazy things thrown out in the media tonight. Everything from the risk of severe weather will decrease dramatically north of Birmingham, to just coming out and saying there's no indication of any isolated development ahead of the mainline! I just don't see how you can look at the 18Z data, or even as the recent 0Z data rolls in, and make statements like that. Then again, I've seen some really good information come in as well. I guess you take the good with the bad. I understand the idea of not scaring people unnecessarily. Hyping things is one thing, but purposefully downplaying the situation to be the odd person out is another thing! What are your thoughts on those UH tracks above Richard? They seemed pretty accurate last time. Either way, I hope everyone is prepared for power outages, as you alluded too, just from the incredible wind energy in this system.
Austin Dawg
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Thanks. That is crazy looking. I really wish my. daughter and her girls were back home in Round Rock. Mom, brother, and cousins are in Smithville, Fulton and Tupelo MS and Holly Pond, AL.
I hate days like this,
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- Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
I have been burned on UH tracks, especially more than 12 hours out. However, putting that aside, these parameters typically do not look this intense and we have seen model agreement on the overall setup for days now...I just don't see how you can downplay this one...regardless of storm mode.
