Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread

[F0rbs lover]

significant tornado parameters going up

 

[ARCC]

Also, if convection has a UH streak, it’s not junk convection. That’s literally the opposite of what junk convection is.

Which is correct, but since none of the prefrontal convection(except for the lone supercell that comes off the gulf) has any along with sounding profiles ahead of the line; it's safe to assume that all the prefrontal convection is junk convection.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

HRRR seems to be zeroing in on an area near/NE of the DFW metro to the Red River for a discrete cell or two with a pronounced UH streak this afternoon. That jives with that STP plot. Problematic.

 

[JayF]

First Tornado warning issued for the day was just issued in Hughes, Oklahoma. Here we go.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Which is correct, but since none of the prefrontal convection(except for the lone supercell that comes off the gulf) has any along with sounding profiles ahead of the line; it's safe to assume that all the prefrontal convection is junk convection.

Weren't there a couple events in the cool season a few years ago, Feb. 2016 perhaps, where supercells with tornadic waterspouts came off the Gulf and produced EF3 damage in/near the Pensacola metro?

 

[TornadoFan]

Another storm over Prague, Oklahoma is showing signs of rotation. Might go tornado warned soon.

 

[ARCC]

Weren't there a couple events in the cool season a few years ago, Feb. 2016 perhaps, where supercells with tornadic waterspouts came off the Gulf and produced EF3 damage in/near the Pensacola metro?

Along the gulf is always very favored for tornadoes in these setups. Wouldnt surprise mad if this general area deals with the lone supercell that causes major problems.

 

[Kory]

Weren't there a couple events in the cool season a few years ago, Feb. 2016 perhaps, where supercells with tornadic waterspouts came off the Gulf and produced EF3 damage in/near the Pensacola metro?

Synoptically 2/23/16 and this event are worlds apart. But yes, 2/23 had multiple strong tornadoes on the Gulf Coast.

 

[Equus]

NAM still throwing out >500 0-1km SRH over NW AL as the line approaches... the wind fields in this system are absolutely ridiculous. Have honestly never seen so many smoothly curved 0-2km or so hodos (despite the massive VBV over TX) over such a huge swath.

 

[AL_ham_op]

Kind of concerning the amount of people in the Bham metro who see that we are on the fringe part of the enhanced area and think it means we're out of the woods.

 

[Kory]

NAM still throwing out >500 0-1km SRH over NW AL as the line approaches... the wind fields in this system are absolutely ridiculous. Have honestly never seen so many smoothly curved 0-2km or so hodos (despite the massive VBV over TX) over such a huge swath.

Yeah those low level winds are so strong they’ll mix out any stable layer/inversion near the surface.

 

[RF16Gold]

Anyone heard from Fred Gossage? Always love to get his thoughts on severe threats. Somebody put out the bat signal to Fred!

 

[Kory]

HRRR continues to indicate some cells this afternoon over Mississippi that might go severe.

 

[Richardjacks]

In most mid winter severe events you hear the term "low-topped" super cells...given the vertical depth of the cape we are seeing, I dont think that applies here to supercells or a qlcs.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Kind of concerning the amount of people in the Bham metro who see that we are on the fringe part of the enhanced area and think it means we're out of the woods.

They'll get a wake up call tomorrow when we are well within the enhanced and quite possibly in a moderate risk.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Anyone heard from Fred Gossage? Always love to get his thoughts on severe threats. Somebody put out the bat signal to Fred!

"Bat Signal"..... LOL.... love it.

You brought back memories.... the most intense and memorable post I ever remember here on talk weather was Fred's post just prior to 4/27. Still remember how I physically felt when I read his post.

 

[Richardjacks]

"Bat Signal"..... LOL.... love it.

You brought back memories.... the most intense and memorable post I ever remember here on talk weather was Fred's post just prior to 4/27. Still remember how I physically felt when I read his post.

Based on a brief facebook interaction this morning, he thinks the line could have strong tornadoes within.

 

[WesL]

Morning everyone.

With this multi-day threat starting to kick off we have decided to have two threads for this event. This thread will be reserved for forecast for the entirety of the event. There is now another thread that should be used to capture real-time storm information (aka Nowcasting) and storm reports. The intent is to ensure that the forecast information for the system tomorrow is easy to find and reference for those who are under the gun tomorrow. The moderating team will be working to help move posts over from this point forward but we appreciate you helping us keep this organized.

As always we appreciate you being a part of TalkWeather and hope that each of you remain safe over the next few days.
Wes

 

[South AL Wx]

The enhanced risk has been expanded northward for tomorrow:

 

[JayF]

A major change to the day 2 outlook. Mississippi and Alabama almost in their entirety are covered in the enhanced risk area.