Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[warneagle]

Yeah I guess we’ll see what ends up happening further northeast. Quiet on that front for now.

 

[xJownage]

PDS 80/80 watch is in a 10% hatched area on the 2000Z outlook.

er, what?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

HRRR, 3KM NAM, and RAP agree on a mean supercell near Tulsa, OK later with the activity blowing up just east of I-35 now.

 

[DaveFromGA]

How similar or different does it look compared to what we were looking at 2 days ago at this time?

 

[warneagle]

Those cells southeast of OKC are starting to look potentially troublesome.

 

[Shakespeare2016]

PDS 80/80 watch is in a 10% hatched area on the 2000Z outlook.

er, what?

I think it has happened at least one or two times. Didn't 1/7/08 have a PDS tornado watch in a 10% area?

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Updrafts are really pushing up East of I-35 now.

 

[Evan]

If you believe the HRRR (I guess it's mildly better than Mrs. Cleo this week) then better shear and instability are found further to the east and north and are filtering back to the west and south.

The cells SE of OKC are in the best environment of any other convection currently

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Those cells southeast of OKC are starting to look potentially troublesome.

Absolutely. Good isolation from one another, and very good spacing of the updraft, and downdraft region.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado watch is coming for the MDT area within the hour.

 

[Evan]

Not implying it will, but what would be the worst for the SPC at this point? For the PDS watch to Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency or for the PDS area to take off in contrast to their earlier convective outlook?

Sort of feel like they lose either way, but that another major Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency would be way more damaging. They have an incredibly difficult job but most of the general public will never comprehend that.

 

[Evan]

Absolutely. Good isolation from one another, and very good spacing of the updraft, and downdraft region.

Looks like they are bumping up against the cap and not breaking through.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Absolutely. Good isolation from one another, and very good spacing of the updraft, and downdraft region.

They look to be struggling though due to the CAP.

Looks like they are bumping up against the cap and not breaking through.

Yep!

 

[Evan]

 

[Equus]

20z balloon data says cap is almost gone at OUN, so shouldn't be long

 

[Evan]

20z balloon data says cap is almost gone at OUN, so shouldn't be long

The convective temp on the earlier Arcadia sounding was only 82. Do you have the latest full OUN sounding?

 

[warneagle]

PDS watch is up. Also 80/80.

 

[TornadoFan]

Heck of a wall cloud near Geranimo.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Once those storms east of I-35 tower more, and start dropping some hail, and heavier precip we should start to see the tornado threat ramp up.

 

[Equus]

The convective temp on the earlier Arcadia sounding was only 82. Do you have the latest full OUN sounding?