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Winter WX January 29-30 Southeast Event

is there an underlying technical reason why the GFS-FV3 has been higher than other models with the snow totals? like some sort of inherent bias in the model?
 
G onna
F orecast
S now
 
Precipitation is starting to intensify, still got a long way to go with temps but somebody is gonna score I'm sure.. I don't have much hope for MBY in Huntsville but Central Alabama seems to be a good place to be if you're wanting snow.
 
Latest update from 33/40 now says all models trending downward . Most showing only a dusting to maybe an inch. Cold chasing moisture again. Rain moving into Alabama, but cold well behind. Temp actually rose from 50 to 52 last hour at Anniston.
 
Just as I've been saying all day, not going to be cold enough fast enough. I'm betting we'll see a cold rain for most of the event with some very brief snow on the back edge.

Either way I'm off tomorrow so I get to enjoy a day off but snow would be nice.
 
images
 
I'm thinking the freezing temperatures will infiltrate from the north and intercept the precipitation slowly tracking east and give Central AL the best shot at decent accumulation.

Gvj8yVp.jpg


Both entities are moving very slow.. it'll be interesting to watch it play out.

North Alabama already has the back end passing through the NW portion of the forecast area.
Central Alabama has Eastward moving showers stretching way back to Louisiana.
 
This is almost comical. Just an outright disaster for the models. Remember for every future run/event ... if the cold air isnt in place clippers equal cold air chasing moisture. I've seen this same thing happen twice now. It will never fool me again. It's totally different when you have a low in place to pull in the cold air. And yes it can happen with that setup too but at least you have a better chance. What's worse to me is all of the backlash the Mets are going to get. It's going to be aweful. But to be fair many of the high res models showed that the cold air was not near as strong or as deep as had been forecasted for days. That's another lesson. The GFS especially has always had and always will have a cold air bias when dealing with artic air. It was even worse in its prior iterations. From 4 to sometimes 3+ days out it will always be too cold sometimes it's way off. Other models tend to do this as well. In this situation the gfs had plenty of model support and they all sucked until the short range models came in and said you suck. So keep that in mind for future reference. I'm not a meteorologist but I've lived through alabama weather for 32 years and have seen it all. There are definitely significant trends in winter weather in alabama that impact the final results. With that said the chase is always fun even of the results are bad. On to the next and say a prayer or 2 for all Mets out there. They will need it!
 
Mr. Plow said:
Rain changing over snow @ Hoover. Temp @ 40°.
Click to expand...

Lucky. I have fairly heavy rain and 37 degrees in McCalla. Are you at elevation?
 
Someone ia going to get dumped on with 3+ inches. Precip rapidly changing to all snow per KBMX NEXRAD.
 
Mr. Plow said:
No, only about 600'. Looks like I was premature. Checked again it was just the way raindrops were reflecting the light from my porch light.
Click to expand...

Yeah, could be. But there have been larger batches of snow mixed in with rain so its possible you had a brief changeover. But you should be changing over 100% very soon.

I'm on a ridge at around 615'. Generally, I've seen people need another few hundred feet to really help.
 
Goodluck everyone. Already over for me as I'm about to be dry-slotted. Beats being screenshotted, I guess (for you Yo Gotti fans). I'm headed back to bed. My spouse is overseas, I'm home with the kids, and I have strep throat, so the rest of today is going to be about as fun as it is to be Robert Bentley's girlfriend.
 
FWIW, I'm down to 34 and still all rain as the dry slot over takes me. Really thought I'd see a changeover before 34.
 
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