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Severe Weather 2026

JPWX said:
To be fair, March has been a lot more active than April the last few years. I agree that first part of April should be colder than normal especially around Easter (with final frost/freeze threat for southern states as well around that time). However, after that, we should flip the pattern back mid/late April going into May. We'll see though. I have my suspicions that April will be more active than it's been the last few years.
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Only part April I see we get break will be first week of the month … after an active March I am going with even more active back half of April into early may … especially for areas in Dixie and Mid south regions …before most activity will start to settle over plains
 
My first thoughts on this potential svr sequence is that straited mothership supercells are absolutely a possibility for chasers wanting to bag some early structure. Strong low level shear but dry profiles and incoming CIN screams this type of mothership event. Not too sure beyond the 4th
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
I'll also note that from a solely statistical standpoint, having a 2018-esque season with no violent tornadoes is even rarer than a Super Outbreak.

Since 1950 there have been two years with Super Outbreaks (1974 and 2011), and only one with no EF4+ tornadoes in the US (2018 being the only one). The atmosphere doesn't care about the gambler's fallacy or statistics, though.
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Personally, I think 2016 had fewer violent tornadoes than 2018. Chapman was obviously F5 and Katie was violent. Woodburn, Indiana has a case.

Edit: Tappahannock, Virginia may have been violent
MNTornadoGuy

Post in thread 'Significant Tornado Events'

The 2016 Tappahannock VA EF3 tornado was likely violent. It annihilated forests and when the core passed over an open field it produced scouring.
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Screenshot_2021-03-29 Tappahannock VA tornado EF3 damage and destruction.png
Screenshot_2021-03-29 Planet Explorer.png
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2018 had 5 violent candidates: Camp Crook, Tescott, Laramie, Douglas, and Alonsa

2005 was the least violent year in living memory imo. Earlington, Kentucky has the only argument for violent status. And that was in mid November, not spring! Another similar year was 2000. The 3 violent tornadoes were in July, September, and December.

In this century there have actually been 4 years with no violent-rated tornadoes in spring: 2000, 2005, 2018, and 2021. However, Tescott 2018 was May 1
 
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Aaron Rider said:
Personally, I think 2016 had fewer violent tornadoes than 2018. Chapman was obviously F5 and Katie was violent. Woodburn, Indiana has a case.

2018 had 5 violent candidates: Camp Crook, Tescott, Laramie, Douglas, and Alonsa

2005 was the least violent year in living memory imo. Earlington, Kentucky has the only argument for violent status. And that was in mid November, not spring! Another similar year was 2000. The 3 violent tornadoes were in July, September, and December.

In this century there have actually been 4 years with no violent-rated tornadoes in spring: 2000, 2005, 2018, and 2021. However, Tescott 2018 was May 1
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Stoughton, WI August 18. HE F3/borderline F4.

Newnan 3/25, although questionable.
 
Concerning next weekend...

From Thursday night into Friday, southwesterly mid-level flow is
forecast to strengthen over the south-central states. In response,
moisture advection will likely continue over the southern Plains as
moderate instability re-develops across much of the southern Plains.
Scattered thunderstorms should form over parts of this airmass
Thursday night from west-central Texas north-northeastward into
parts of the central Plains. The potential for storm development
should continue into Friday along the northern edge of the moist
airmass from north-central Texas northeastward into the Ozarks.
Although a severe threat could develop over parts of the southern
Plains and Ozarks Friday afternoon and evening, there is
considerable uncertainty, mainly due to variance among model
solutions.

On Saturday, am amplified upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over the western U.S., as mid-level flow becomes south-southwesterly
from the Gulf Coast States into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist
airmass is forecast over much of the Gulf Coast states, where
scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Although a
severe threat could develop during the day, uncertainty is high
concerning the placement of a more concentrated severe threat area.
 
MichelleH said:
Concerning next weekend...

From Thursday night into Friday, southwesterly mid-level flow is
forecast to strengthen over the south-central states. In response,
moisture advection will likely continue over the southern Plains as
moderate instability re-develops across much of the southern Plains.
Scattered thunderstorms should form over parts of this airmass
Thursday night from west-central Texas north-northeastward into
parts of the central Plains. The potential for storm development
should continue into Friday along the northern edge of the moist
airmass from north-central Texas northeastward into the Ozarks.
Although a severe threat could develop over parts of the southern
Plains and Ozarks Friday afternoon and evening, there is
considerable uncertainty, mainly due to variance among model
solutions.

On Saturday, am amplified upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over the western U.S., as mid-level flow becomes south-southwesterly
from the Gulf Coast States into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist
airmass is forecast over much of the Gulf Coast states, where
scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Although a
severe threat could develop during the day, uncertainty is high
concerning the placement of a more concentrated severe threat area.
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No T word yet .
 
Depending on my health, I may try to chase this one. The thought of all that driving with three herniated cervical discs is a little bit daunting though.

Looks like a dangerous setup if it does verify.
 
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