Severe Weather 2026

[CheeselandSkies]

Day 6 now has a 15% over a good sized area.

Although instability is rather modest, 06Z GFS implies at least some severe threat would extend a decent ways further northeast of where they have it outlined.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Kind of odd because the 500mb pattern depicted at that timeframe is quite zonal and lacking a nice, digging trough over that area. In fact heights are neutral to slightly rising. I'd be skeptical of that 500mb/surface pattern realizing such a potent thermodynamic environment that far north in March. This time of year you really need the classic, deep negatively tilted trough and associated low-level response to both cool the mid-levels and pump up the moisture at the surface. As we saw for example just a year ago with March 14th.

Yeah, even a fantasy run showing that much thermodynamic capability was interesting to me.

Heights rising don't particularly hurt a setup that much actually, it can help in instances afaik

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Marginal risk introduced for a conditional risk of large hail today in Central OK should a supercell sustain amidst warm 700s. Discussed this last night. Think some small hail accumulation is likely, large hail may be in the cards with increased buoyancy

 

[TheSuckZone]

Supposed to get ice and snow later this afternoon and evening and it is currently thundering outside. We must be in March

 

[Clancy]

Still looking pretty active all the way through mid-month from the Plains up into the Midwest and down into the Deep South. Aside from areas delineated by SPC though, still going to take some time to figure out exactly what and when to look more closely at.

 

[Kds86z]

Still looking pretty active all the way through mid-month from the Plains up into the Midwest and down into the Deep South. Aside from areas delineated by SPC though, still going to take some time to figure out exactly what and when to look more closely at.
View attachment 50878

 

[Clancy]

That presentation hardly diminishes the prospective threat, especially in the South.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

GFS for March 9th-10th is eye raising for the southeast

 

[JPWX]

And don't forget the heavy rainfall/flash flooding potential. The 12z Canadian rainfall total thru next 10 days for North MS is quite something.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Becoming interested in Wednesday for a low end QLCS tor threat in the Midwest. Strong 850 mb moisture advection + a strong LLJ should lead to a QLCS (dependant on line orientation) capable of producing a few tornadoes. Instability is a question but strongly forced systems can do what they want.

Friday still looking like a threat for tornadoes in E OK. Mainly within that maxima, with robust instability and strong enough shear profiles to make it work.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[RFD66]

Plenty of atmospheric juice and a nasty 500mb neg. tilted trof/ jet streak

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

D3 slight

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

D3 slight
View attachment 50886

Fair slight placement but wouldn't be surprised to see it initially extended up into the Midwest for QLCS action.

Down south, sharp warm nose according to the NAM could hurt any semi discrete convection.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Thursday and Friday look like conditional weak tor + mothership producers in the Plains. Chasers will be eating good, that's for sure

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

To be fair Honest. , each run on models not really impressing as it once was . See if it trends back more potent .

 

[Kds86z]

Broyles using T word for extended outlooks this week.