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Severe Weather 2026

Grand Poo Bah said:
Well this is a straight up unbelievable snapshot from the Euro. Zero chance it verifies, but sure is crazy to imagine.


View attachment 50872
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GFS for the same time period has a similar 500mb pattern, although of course the details vary. Right now it generally shows moisture as being a bit of a question mark, although upper 50s/low 60s are plenty to do the job this time of year.

Right now my interest is more on Wednesday the 4th when the last three GFS runs have had a compact shortwave and surface low moving through the Midwest with some moisture getting pulled up into the triple point. For a good chase opportunity I'd almost want it to slow down a bit from current depictions, right now it has the surface winds veering toward evening. Each successive run since 06Z 2/28 has been a subtle step in that direction, with the instability creeping upward a tad, as well...
 
CheeselandSkies said:
GFS for the same time period has a similar 500mb pattern, although of course the details vary. Right now it generally shows moisture as being a bit of a question mark, although upper 50s/low 60s are plenty to do the job this time of year.

Right now my interest is more on Wednesday the 4th when the last three GFS runs have had a compact shortwave and surface low moving through the Midwest with some moisture getting pulled up into the triple point. For a good chase opportunity I'd almost want it to slow down a bit from current depictions, right now it has the surface winds veering toward evening. Each successive run since 06Z 2/28 has been a subtle step in that direction, with the instability creeping upward a tad, as well...
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A decent little dryline has definitely come up in the last GFS run or two for the 4th. Are you targeting the Illinois/Missouri area?
 
Here's my thoughts on this little bout of svr weather generally from a quick analysis

HRRR actually has a idea of perhaps a brief supercell or two in Oklahoma tmrw. Strong 0-8km shear and long, straight hodos aloft may lead to some small hail accumulation tomorrow if a cell can fire of course in the area. I would find myself thinking that it's probably being overbullish but does seem like a little sneaky day where some surprise structure could take place. SPC does hint at limited svr potential with this guidance but says that it's likely a low confidence scenario:

"There is a low chance for a strong
thunderstorm across central OK during the evening hours per latest
RRFS solutions, which depict better low-level moisture/buoyancy into
OK and are aligned with recent RAP solutions environmentally.
However, the consensus among other HREF members and calibrated
guidance is that the RRFS is the outlier solution, which
substantially limits confidence in the severe potential."

On the 4th like @CheeselandSkies mentions, there could be some svr potential leaning back into areas of the Midwest but it seems up north, a very sharp cap of sorts would limit any convection from getting going in strong low level shear. Down south suffers from poorer thermos. This setup doesn't really interest me atm unless things somehow uptrend major.

I find myself looking at Thursday with curiosity but there are issues. While there may be a vigorous low level response at 00z Friday, things are a bit questionable to support CI in the area. This looks more like one of those straited supercell days to me. Friday doesn't stick out to me as noteworthy but it's the first slightly solid setup thermodynamically on the GFS so far, and it would have enough shear to be something at least in the Midwest. At 00z Saturday, another situation develops with a robust LLJ but CIN increasing in N TX, once again not thinking much of it due to a few issues.

The best days for this little sequence are likely the 6th and 7th. That's generally talking supercellular potential and different hazards. The rest of these days are very iffy to me. Regarding the potential around the 10th, I'm waiting for models to get in some better range before properly going into that. Otherwise, I would say chasers could have a nice "warmup" early start with some structurefests coming up next week!
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
A decent little dryline has definitely come up in the last GFS run or two for the 4th. Are you targeting the Illinois/Missouri area?
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Keeping my eye on it for now. Looks like the primary area of interest would be roughly along the I-80 corridor east of the Quad Cities.
 
TheSuckZone said:
Of course anything "accumulated" is going to show higher numbers. I am so tired of seeing this map come across my timeline.
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Agree. Way too overused and no context either to the post on what it means. Awful lot of them do this, just say "oh my" and then it makes people think "uh oh that means bad tornadoes or stuff!!"

Ugh.
 
Kds86z said:
Sorry lol
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It's not your fault but spreading on those posts does more harm than you would think. They are purposefully trying to lure you into that type of bait. That map has been shared like crazy many times every time one of those large signals show up. A active pattern will accumulate such a signal but it doesn't mean a major day is in the cards. I'm just tired of the community on there always having to overdo stuff. Main reason why I only check informative accounts
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
It's not your fault but spreading on those posts does more harm than you would think. They are purposefully trying to lure you into that type of bait. That map has been shared like crazy many times every time one of those large signals show up. A active pattern will accumulate such a signal but it doesn't mean a major day is in the cards. I'm just tired of the community on there always having to overdo stuff. Main reason why I only check informative accounts
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I don't think the original post was "sensationalization" so to say. It was clearly intended to hype up chasers in their clique that can also parse the map. The main issue is that it doesn't make sense on here, as a lot of people that visit are more casual and less knowledgable. A lot of twitter posts don't need to be on this forum...
 
Cs
eep said:
I don't think the original post was "sensationalization" so to say. It was clearly intended to hype up chasers in their clique that can also parse the map. The main issue is that it doesn't make sense on here, as a lot of people that visit are more casual and less knowledgable. A lot of twitter posts don't need to be on this forum...
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The problem is they give no context to it. It's intended for chasers but for regulars who come across that post with that type of wording, it's gonna come off bad. WXTwitter is a cesspool honestly
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Taken from Southern Michigan on Mar 10. Wildest signal I've seen from the GFS this whole time on this period. There will be major changes but I mean that's a fantasy run to save
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Kind of odd because the 500mb pattern depicted at that timeframe is quite zonal and lacking a nice, digging trough over that area. In fact heights are neutral to slightly rising. I'd be skeptical of that 500mb/surface pattern realizing such a potent thermodynamic environment that far north in March. This time of year you really need the classic, deep negatively tilted trough and associated low-level response to both cool the mid-levels and pump up the moisture at the surface. As we saw for example just a year ago with March 14th.
 
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