Severe Weather 2026

[Sharpy]

Yesterday was impressive for hail ad the amount of discrete cells that fired. It just makes you realise how lucky we are that high end parameter spaces don't interact with enough forcing and spacing like we seen yesterday to promote long lived supercells all that often.

Regarding the gustnado situation, i wonder if Spann was reluctant due to the lack of a tornado risk yesterday? And he didn't want to jump the gun? Still interesting wording as it was clearly a weak tornado.

Sometimes on these type of days where tornadoes are missed, offices either realise and correct the mistake. OR they do this..

Either way, it looks like a swirling and damaging column of air to me so hopefully we see a survey from it. The hail swathes were interesting too.

That 00z BMX sounding perfectly explains why. Strong CAPE above the HGZ layer, steep lapse rates, and favorable hodograph for a weak tornado/dominant hail threat.

Spann was on the road yesterday - he had a busy day yesterday and likely didn’t analyze it properly while being on the go. He is human - as amazing as he is. Nobody is ever going to get every weather forecast right or see something as it should be.

Moral of the story - we’re all human; even if we are at the top of our game in something we feel we’re knowledgeable about. We learn and apply the lessons. We’ll see what the NWS determines in their surveys.

 

[Sharpy]

A similar year that I wouldn’t be surprised to perhaps see as an analog based on the info above, 2012 may be a similar setup. Alabama was busy in January and late February/early March with severe weather (1/23 and 2/28-3/2) and we ended up having 0 (!!!) tornadoes in April after what happened 2011.

Meanhwhile, 2/28-3/2 had a lot of tornadoes in the mid south and Ohio Valley. Look back at that map above. North Alabama was affected too, albeit not as much as the areas north of there. Then, we had the 4/13-14 outbreak in the Plains. That would fall in line with an active April in the Plains if this general idea were to be followed, with earlier severe weather possibly starting in mid/late January.

I am also feeling really good at the moment while typing this, so I am perhaps grasping at straws with this, but it may make sense.

-30-

It isn’t a strong analog, but Trey mentioned 2012!

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Spann was on the road yesterday - he had a busy day yesterday and likely didn’t analyze it properly while being on the go. He is human - as amazing as he is. Nobody is ever going to get every weather forecast right or see something as it should be.

Moral of the story - we’re all human; even if we are at the top of our game in something we feel we’re knowledgeable about. We learn and apply the lessons. We’ll see what the NWS determines in their surveys.

Oh absolutely! I think people were being too harsh on Spann yesterday. You're gonna get it wrong sometimes

 

[MichelleH]

From a message posted on FB by Spann four hours ago. He admitted he was wrong. Moving on...

"It likely that a small tornado moved through parts of Pinson. Trussville damage was either a weak tornado or a gustnado. NWS Birmingham will do their survey this morning. This wasn't on the bingo card for yesterday."

"I will post the survey results when they come in. There has been some pretty nasty criticism of me on social media since yesterday, which mostly was deserved. But remember, you. can't hurt my feelings; I have no feelings left to hurt after 47 years of this."

 

[South AL Wx]

NWS BMX says that the Pinson damage was due to 70-75 mph wind damage. Not a tornado there.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

"I will post the survey results when they come in. There has been some pretty nasty criticism of me on social media since yesterday, which mostly was deserved. But remember, you. can't hurt my feelings; I have no feelings left to hurt after 47 years of this."

He's literally done segments where he shows people comments criticizing him and jokes about it; the guy is invincible. Something I assume everybody in the broadcast met industry strives for.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

He's literally done segments where he shows people comments criticizing him and jokes about it; the guy is invincible. Something I assume everybody in the broadcast met industry strives for.

I know it's not weather-related but I'm just going to plop this in because I find the entire segment hilarious:

 

[ColdFront]

I love Trey’s videos and tell-it-like-it-is analysis, and I’m also a proponent of rolling my eyes every single season when certain YouTubers say this year is just like “2011”…

With that said, I would note 3 out of his 4 last season predictions have included 2018 as an analog. While the background patterns for 2026 and 2018 do “analog” with each other per Trey’s criteria, he makes sure to caveat the video that these are just educated guesses. I know there were some groans on Wx Twitter about the 2018 comparison.

Predicting an entire tornado season is nigh impossible, and I don’t think there’s any way to confidentially predict it. You could probably run a computer simulation with the exact same background states as 2018 and 2011 and you wouldn’t get the same result each time. The atmosphere is just so chaotic and dynamic.

 

[ColdFront]

I know it's not weather-related but I'm just going to plop this in because I find the entire segment hilarious:

Shoutout to @JPWX at 1:20 in that video!

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

I love Trey’s videos and tell-it-like-it-is analysis, and I’m also a proponent of rolling my eyes every single season when certain YouTubers say this year is just like “2011”…

With that said, I would note 3 out of his 4 last season predictions have included 2018 as an analog. While the background patterns for 2026 and 2018 do “analog” with each other per Trey’s criteria, he makes sure to caveat the video that these are just educated guesses. I know there were some groans on Wx Twitter about the 2018 comparison.

Predicting an entire tornado season is nigh impossible, and I don’t think there’s any way to confidentially predict it. You could probably run a computer simulation with the exact same background states as 2018 and 2011 and you wouldn’t get the same result each time. The atmosphere is just so chaotic and dynamic.

I'll also note that from a solely statistical standpoint, having a 2018-esque season with no violent tornadoes is even rarer than a Super Outbreak.

Since 1950 there have been two years with Super Outbreaks (1974 and 2011), and only one with no EF4+ tornadoes in the US (2018 being the only one). The atmosphere doesn't care about the gambler's fallacy or statistics, though.

 

[ColdFront]

I'll also note that from a solely statistical standpoint, having a 2018-esque season with no violent tornadoes is even rarer than a Super Outbreak.

Since 1950 there have been two years with Super Outbreaks (1974 and 2011), and only one with no EF4+ tornadoes in the US (2018 being the only one). The atmosphere doesn't care about the gambler's fallacy or statistics, though.

This is a great point and one I hadn’t thought about. It’s like the polar opposite of 2011. In 2011, every single event, trough, and pattern either hit or vastly exceeded its ceiling. 2018 was the opposite lol. 2018 was the absolute floor for the outcome of that background state.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

This is a great point and one I hadn’t thought about. It’s like the polar opposite of 2011. In 2011, every single event, trough, and pattern either hit or vastly exceeded its ceiling. 2018 was the opposite lol. 2018 was the absolute floor for the outcome of that background state.

2018 was just an entire-year version of what happened from July to November of last year, lol. I can't even imagine how grueling that year must've been for weather enthusiasts; literally one of the least-noteworthy years activity-wise of all time.

 

[Ozonelayer]

GFS has consistently shown a Midwest/Deep South some time after this event. GFS Ensemble support is there as well, although the magnitude (If it doesn't fizzle out) isn't quite nailed down and likely wont be as it gets closer. The Euro also has something similar and in the same general area (Slightly West though) but I don't have piv+ so I can't really see that.

With that said, take the intensity with a grain of salt here, but the 12z GFS has a hell of a tornado outbreak from the 10th-11th.






(Soundings from west central MS)

Of course, this is probably not how it will play out, and we will see once we get closer. All I'm saying is to keep an eye on the Midwest and Deep South, we might have a surprise in store.

 

[bckhd2]

On the one hand, I'd love to see some active weather around the South, I really enjoy the discussions here and learn so much every time. On the other hand, I coach in and work for two Little Leagues in the area and an active spring storm season means rainouts and trying to reschedule almost 75 teams worth of games -- no thanks!!

 

[Clancy]

I'd like to remind everyone that we are looking at the beginning of March.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

On the one hand, I'd love to see some active weather around the South, I really enjoy the discussions here and learn so much every time. On the other hand, I coach in and work for two Little Leagues in the area and an active spring storm season means rainouts and trying to reschedule almost 75 teams worth of games -- no thanks!!

I'll be fine with anything as long as I see one (yes, just one) tornado. Central Ohio has historically been abysmally (and borderline conspiratorially) inactive with severe weather so it's about time we get something.

 

[slenker]

I'll be fine with anything as long as I see one (yes, just one) tornado. Central Ohio has historically been abysmally (and borderline conspiratorially) inactive with severe weather so it's about time we get something.

I've never read something so true in my entire life. (Outside of the June 2012 derecho, which flung my trampoline 3 houses down when I was a little kid and sparked my interest in severe weather).

 

[CheeselandSkies]

2018 was just an entire-year version of what happened from July to November of last year, lol. I can't even imagine how grueling that year must've been for weather enthusiasts; literally one of the least-noteworthy years activity-wise of all time.

The only thing that saved me from dying of boredom that year was the Midwest storms and flooding that began in late summer, followed by tracking and watching the live coverage of the landfalls of Hurricanes Florence and Michael.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

I've never read something so true in my entire life. (Outside of the June 2012 derecho, which flung my trampoline 3 houses down when I was a little kid and sparked my interest in severe weather).

It's actually insane. Tornado Archive isn't working right now but we are the only major city in Ohio to have not been hit by a violent tornado. The last F3+ tornado was in 1973. Supercells magically die as they enter the metro (May 27, 2019, March 14, 2024) and we literally have never had a tornado OR flash flood emergency.

Am I going crazy? Maybe I am. I'll go tell the guys who control the weather to send one through my backyard just to get a taste of any bad weather. Rant over, though, lol.

 

[Kds86z]

The only thing that saved me from dying of boredom that year was the Midwest storms and flooding that began in late summer, followed by tracking and watching the live coverage of the landfalls of Hurricanes Florence and Michael.

Hope this won’t be like 2018.