Significant Tornado Events

[Central Ohio Wx]

Oh, 100%. Windrowing generally makes the path much more visible, and that's what happened with Vilonia. Enderlin couldn't produce a defineable debris path because there was nothing to hit. It's similar to mudblasting (this concept was only recently introduced iirc) and debris-loaded sandpapering - certain aspects of environment-influenced damage from a tornado can appear to exaggerate it's intensity.

Adding to this - Enderlin likely peaked either at or just northeast of the train cars. Coincidentally, besides the train there were no trees or other structures for it to hit (there is a mudblasted cell-tower that collapsed but I doubt that was in the core).

Vilonia likely peaked somewhere near Vilonia, and arguably as it moved near the two rows of swept homes (regardless still a populated area with structures). It's like comparing apples to oranges; it's hard to compare both since neither hit or peaked over similar points where damage could be produced.

 

[TH2002]

I believe that those deaths were not officially attributed to the tornado, although they should have been.

They were. Though the ESWD never officially assigned an F rating, the fatalities are attributed to the tornado (they list 16 instead of 17 for some reason though - not sure why).

Deadliest tornado in Dutch history if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Christopher Robert]

I posted some never before seen December 10th 2021 footage on my twitter. Would appreciate a follow but if not that's cool too! Thank to everyone in here who has shared knowledge.

https://x.com/Chrislikesnados

 

[tornadowatch211]

Just made a Jarrell map over DCE:

Key (Instant winds)
Dark red: 300+
Grey: 295+
Black: 290+
White: 280+
Dark cyan: 270+
Dark blue: 260+
Dark purple: 250+
Lavender: 225+
Light red: 175+
Orange: 150+
Yellow: 125+
Green: 100+
Light blue: 50+
Ill post full map later

 

[buckeye05]

Oh, 100%. Windrowing generally makes the path much more visible, and that's what happened with Vilonia. Enderlin couldn't produce a defineable debris path because there was nothing to hit. It's similar to mudblasting (this concept was only recently introduced iirc) and debris-loaded sandpapering - certain aspects of environment-influenced damage from a tornado can appear to exaggerate it's intensity.

The one Vilonia-related thing that simply doesn’t get talked about enough is Fish Hooks Restaurant. While it had a large boxy profile and probably not much in the way of interior walls, it’s still one of the cleanest sweeps of any building I have ever seen.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Just made a Jarrell map over DCE:
View attachment 49171
Key (Instant winds)
Dark red: 300+
Grey: 295+
Black: 290+
White: 280+
Dark cyan: 270+
Dark blue: 260+
Dark purple: 250+
Lavender: 225+
Light red: 175+
Orange: 150+
Yellow: 125+
Green: 100+
Light blue: 50+
Ill post full map later

If you need it I've got an aerial image overlay of the entire track; it's wacky but works.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The one Vilonia-related thing that simply doesn’t get talked about enough is Fish Hooks Restaurant. While it had a large boxy profile and probably not much in the way of interior walls, it’s still one of the cleanest sweeps of any building I have ever seen.

Would you have a image of the restaurant? Vilonia was the only true robbing of a EF5 rating I've seen, it was deliberate and in a field like this, it's appalling to let your own bias/incompetence get in the way of the survey (cough, cough John Robinson!)

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

it was deliberate

While I agree that Vilonia was EF5 intensity (actually, I don't think Vilonia and Smithville are that far off), I haven't seen any proof the homes being rated 190 was deliberate, or that Robinson was in any way biased during it. It was simply another bad survey.

Speaking of North-Central Arkansas, I don't see the February 2008 Atkins-Clinton EF4 being brought up here a lot - just look at this thing!

Probably a contender for "scariest ever". As usual, working on a Wikipedia article for this one.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

While I agree that Vilonia was EF5 intensity (actually, I don't think Vilonia and Smithville are that far off), I haven't seen any proof the homes being rated 190 was deliberate, or that Robinson was in any way biased during it. It was simply another bad survey.

Speaking of North-Central Arkansas, I don't see the February 2008 Atkins-Clinton EF4 being brought up here a lot - just look at this thing!
View attachment 49175
Probably a contender for "scariest ever". As usual, working on a Wikipedia article for this one.

I've brought it up a few times. While I think it reached EF5 intensity, unlike Vilonia it didn't do any clear-cut EF5 damage at least in the structural sense that was (intentionally or not) underrated.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

I've brought it up a few times. While I think it reached EF5 intensity, unlike Vilonia it didn't do any clear-cut EF5 damage at least in the structural sense that was (intentionally or not) underrated.

There is some pretty bad damage in the Atkins area (specifically to the Cherry family frame home where three people died) but there aren’t enough ground photos to deduce whether it was well-anchored.

 

[UK_EF4]

I haven't seen any proof the homes being rated 190 was deliberate, or that Robinson was in any way biased during it.

Its is widely thought John Robinson personally believed that a home DI shouldn't physically be able to receive an EF5 rating. He has stated "some on the [EF scale] committee felt that a house should never be rated EF5" which is in all likelihood referring to at least partially himself. I think there may be some more supporting evidence of this but can't recall exactly what or a source. In fact in Chuck Doswell's blog he mentions how the initial agreement was so that EXP for a house should be able to attain an EF5 rating, maintaining consistency from the Fujita scale. As we know now that was not the case, and Doswell himself saw this as a 'violation of an agreed-upon constraint'. - https://www.flame.org/~cdoswell/EFscale_rant.html

Then, when one of the most well constructed slabbed homes of the EF scale era is surveyed, the main reason for not being EF5 is "ratings are not usually assigned based on damage to one structure". This is a factually incorrect statement. Yet the strongly implication is that this is damage that would otherwise be EF5 (I know he lists further reasons but this implication still stands). While there is some reading between the lines required, I do strongly believe Robinson's personal opinion that homes should not receive EF5 ratings biased his rating decision.

There are also rumors I've seen on here that Robinson also didn't show Tim Marshall numerous other EF5 candidate homes when he visited for survey. That seems hard to confirm or substantiate so won't make any comments on that. But its already well established how many homes were missed in the NWS survey, including completely slabbed ones.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Its is widely thought John Robinson personally believed that a home DI shouldn't physically be able to receive an EF5 rating. He has stated "some on the [EF scale] committee felt that a house should never be rated EF5" which is in all likelihood referring to at least partially himself. I think there may be some more supporting evidence of this but can't recall exactly what or a source. In fact in Chuck Doswell's blog he mentions how the initial agreement was so that EXP for a house should be able to attain an EF5 rating, maintaining consistency from the Fujita scale. As we know now that was not the case, and Doswell himself saw this as a 'violation of an agreed-upon constraint'. - https://www.flame.org/~cdoswell/EFscale_rant.html

Then, when one of the most well constructed slabbed homes of the EF scale era is surveyed, the main reason for not being EF5 is "ratings are not usually assigned based on damage to one structure". This is a factually incorrect statement. Yet the strongly implication is that this is damage that would otherwise be EF5 (I know he lists further reasons but this implication still stands). While there is some reading between the lines required, I do strongly believe Robinson's personal opinion that homes should not receive EF5 ratings biased his rating decision.

There are also rumors I've seen on here that Robinson also didn't show Tim Marshall numerous other EF5 candidate homes when he visited for survey. That seems hard to confirm or substantiate so won't make any comments on that. But its already well established how many homes were missed in the NWS survey, including completely slabbed ones.

This is why i used deliberate. Some of the remarks Robinson said displayed clear and strong bias, and likely played into some points in the survey. There were plenty of missed homes, that might've been EF5 candidates. We can't go back and change them now, but Robinson is the main reason I'm infuriated at the Vilonia surveys. You just can't make remarks like that and then act like the survey was all fair etc. He changed the rules of how the scale was used and is the main reason many offices leant conservative for what was once the "Drought" of EF5s at least imo. I don't like to sound like a conspiracy theorist in my posts, but there's enough evidence to essentially conclude he didn't like the idea of this tornado being rated EF5 or just something about the survey. I'm all for ruining records and crucial data, you know? /s

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

There is some pretty bad damage in the Atkins area (specifically to the Cherry family frame home where three people died) but there aren’t enough ground photos to deduce whether it was well-anchored.

If anyone has photos of this home that would be great; I can't find any photos of this property. It was a frame home swept to it's foundation. This photo is the closest I've come to find anything described like it:

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

If anyone has photos of this home that would be great; I can't find any photos of this property. It was a frame home swept to it's foundation. This photo is the closest I've come to find anything described like it:
View attachment 49178

Did a little bit of search for 25 mins but struggled to find any genuine photos similar to the one you have here showing houses in the vicinity of the Cherry home. Not sure where your best bet would be to find anything closer

 

[UK_EF4]

I guess I'm just not comfortable with making accusations about surveyors just because they did a poor job - there isn't anything conspiratorial about the EF scale, and hopefully that's a widely-accepted belief (ie the "insurance conspiracy" which has been completely debunked).

Bias isn't inherently conspiratorial though, and identifying bias perhaps isn't the same as accusing. In fact, for a subjective scale, any application will have some level of bias - subconscious or not - that's just the nature of us humans. The Vilonia survey was poor (in more ways than one) and everyone knows it. Its pretty fair to infer the level of bias in this survey may have been significantly higher than in others.

 

[SweptSlab5]

The one Vilonia-related thing that simply doesn’t get talked about enough is Fish Hooks Restaurant. While it had a large boxy profile and probably not much in the way of interior walls, it’s still one of the cleanest sweeps of any building I have ever seen.

What’s the largest well anchored building you have ever seen with a completely clean sweep?

 

[joshoctober16]

If you need it I've got an aerial image overlay of the entire track; it's wacky but works.

you do? cause i made my own jarrell survey and i don't have good images for the start.



red box area is the spot i need more images

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Bias isn't inherently conspiratorial though, and identifying bias perhaps isn't the same as accusing. In fact, for a subjective scale, any application will have some level of bias - subconscious or not - that's just the nature of us humans. The Vilonia survey was poor (in more ways than one) and everyone knows it. Its pretty fair to infer the level of bias in this survey may have been significantly higher than in others.

It's such an insane, system breaking bias too. The scale was designed to be straight forward. Houses swept clean was 5/5 damage because it can't get more intense than that. The wind speeds attached to the F5 rating were what Fujita thought was required to sweep a strong frame house.

The ASCE and Texas Tech believed it was less than that so they created a new scale with lower wind speed estimates for the same damage. Swept houses is still supposed to be the maximum damage indicator. They literally lowered the wind speed estimates so it still could be.

Yet, you have some prominent surveyors who believe swept homes shouldn't ever be EF5? It makes no sense! Swept homes being the maximum rating is literally the entire purpose of these scales. Robinson's beliefs go against the intended design and definition of F5 and EF5. It's like saying "I don't believe 157 mph+ hurricane wind speeds are actually category 5." How is that a valid belief? There's no other way to define a category 5.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

So now we have each NWS office creating their own new definitions for EF5 with literally no agreement anywhere and subjectivity/bias everywhere. The EF scale serves no function because the utility has been removed from it by people like Robinson.

 

[SweptSlab5]

So now we have each NWS office creating their own new definitions for EF5 with literally no agreement anywhere and subjectivity/bias everywhere. The EF scale serves no function because the utility has been removed from it by people like Robinson.

Should an EEF scale be made? What would best improve the EF scale. I am in favor of much more contextual Di's being added. Also, things such as lofting DI's would be nice.