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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

Atlantic said:
Adios Keli!

TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Remnants Of Keli Discussion Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 30 2025

Convection associated with Keli has largely collapsed. Based on
the geostationary visible imagery, it appears the low-level
circulation has opened into a trough on the northern side of Iona.
The remnants of Keli are moving westward at around 15 kt within
the northeastern circulation of Iona and this motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so.

This will be the last advisory issued for Keli. For additional
information, see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service under WMO header FZPN02 KWBC and AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 13.9N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

NNNN
Click to expand...
Sorry for your loss @Atlantic
 
Invest 99E became Tropical Storm Gil overnight, and it is expected to peak at 75 kts (85 mph), a mid-end Category 1. The storm is expected to reach the 26*C isotherm in about 4 days, and after that time the convection is expected to collapse and Gil is expected to degrade into a convection less swirl of low pressure.
 
Atlantic said:
Invest 99E became Tropical Storm Gil overnight, and it is expected to peak at 75 kts (85 mph), a mid-end Category 1. The storm is expected to reach the 26*C isotherm in about 4 days, and after that time the convection is expected to collapse and Gil is expected to degrade into a convection less swirl of low pressure.
Click to expand...
Gil..
 
Kds86z said:
Gil..
Click to expand...
GIF by Poundshop.com
 
An ASCAT pass reveals last night that Iona was close to opening up into a trough of low pressure, and it has likely completed that process by now, though the CPHC is still issuing warnings on it as a TS.
 
Gil has intensified to 55 kts (65 mph) and the NHC expects this to become a short-lived Category 1 later today. Gil is expected to pass over the 26*C isotherm in about 2-3 days but increasing wind shear will likely cause weakening before that.


On top of Gil, we have two other areas of interest in the Eastern Pacific:

AoI #1 with 30/70 chances as of now.
And recently introduced AoI #2 which the disturbance is expected to form in a several days, the chances currently are 0/20
 
Krosa is still going near Japan and it has nearly reintensified into a typhoon again with current winds of 60 kts (70 mph)

We have Invest 93W hot on the heels of Krosa which the JTWC in the past several hours upgraded to Medium
————————————————————
In the Jakartan AoR in the SHEM’s Australian Region, another wintertime disturbance is expected to form, which to date as far as I am aware only Meteo-France (the RSMC for the Southwest Indian Ocean) has noted. There remains a low probability of another TC formation in the Southern Indian Ocean as of now.
 
I have updated the OG post on Page 1 to include the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers of the World and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers of the Australian Region.
 
Iona is expected to cross the International Dateline in about 12 hours according to the NHC/CPHC, once it does the responsibility of warning upon the storm will shift from the NHC and CPHC to JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency, RSMC Tokyo for the Western Pacific Basin)
 
Invest 93W has been upgraded to High chance by the JTWC and it now has a TCFA on it issued
IMG_1861.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 012300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 136.2E TO 33.4N 143.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.9N 136.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26.3N 135.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 136.4E, APPROXIMATELY 293 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AREA WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY, THE ONLY HINDRANCE AGAINST 93W IS DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022300Z.
//
NNNN
 
Gil becomes a hurricane as of the 00Z update, likely to be short-lived through.

EP, 07, 2025080200, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1243W, 65, 991, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 210, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GIL, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015
 
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