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Severe Weather 2018

This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%

  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%

  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%
  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
If there is instability, wow.

bs0500.conus.png


srh03.conus.png
 
Both GFS and Euro are coming into agreement that the synoptics of the system next weekend could be a potent system. The Euro is about a day slower than the GFS. Instability at this point is still low.
 
12z GFS has trended toward the Euro in terms of slowing the system down. This let's low level moisture climb more than previous runs. Still looks like a very dangerous setup if instability continues to increase.
 
ARCC said:
12z GFS has trended toward the Euro in terms of slowing the system down. This let's low level moisture climb more than previous runs. Still looks like a very dangerous setup if instability continues to increase.
Click to expand...
Is it looking like the mid-south is in play for this next system?
 
What was a low pressure around Missouri a few days ago is now a Miller A. Haha. Why can't this happen in winter.
 
Things just didn't really line up with this pattern in the manner they seemed to be back at the beginning of the month. We had multiple systems come through, but they just didn't line up quite right. There's still time for a larger scale event to take place but that window is shrinking before the pattern shifts out to the plains (And even there its a little iffy at the moment)

Really shows how difficult it is to get a big outbreak pattern. So many things have to line up just right, and that hasn't happened really at all ever since 2014.
 
rolltide_130 said:
Things just didn't really line up with this pattern in the manner they seemed to be back at the beginning of the month. We had multiple systems come through, but they just didn't line up quite right. There's still time for a larger scale event to take place but that window is shrinking before the pattern shifts out to the plains (And even there its a little iffy at the moment)

Really shows how difficult it is to get a big outbreak pattern. So many things have to line up just right, and that hasn't happened really at all ever since 2014.
Click to expand...
Yeah. As a big severe wx freak.... this pattern blows ....
 
University of Alabama severe weather survey... Takes about 10 minutes or so

Dr. Laura Myers from the University of Alabama is conducting a study called "Using Vulnerability as Empirical Data to Improve Forecast and Warning Services".
This study is in conjunction with the VORTEX SE 2017-18 research initiative on southeastern tornadoes, specifically in Northern Alabama. This study is a continuation of the Vortex 2017-18 Household Study that focused on the Spring 2017-18 severe weather season.
Click to expand...

https://universityofalabama.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_eDqc92CgvYOyPuR
 
rolltide_130 said:
Things just didn't really line up with this pattern in the manner they seemed to be back at the beginning of the month. We had multiple systems come through, but they just didn't line up quite right. There's still time for a larger scale event to take place but that window is shrinking before the pattern shifts out to the plains (And even there its a little iffy at the moment)

Really shows how difficult it is to get a big outbreak pattern. So many things have to line up just right, and that hasn't happened really at all ever since 2014.
Click to expand...
Wouldn’t say we’re seeing a shrinking window of opportunity for us here in Dixie midsouth region ... this pattern we been stuck could delay things , causing run behind... think late this month into better part may .. we going have some opportunity for a large scale severe event here... before things migrate to the plains late may june....
 
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