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Severe Weather 2025

Tanner said:
We need to stop listening to one man’s opinions and actually take into account the fact that it was a projection. Trey is an amazing forecaster, meteorologist, and person. I aspire to someone like him! But I wouldn’t want everyone looking at me and only me for the matter of telling you what I think is going to happen, I would want you to do your own observations and take in multiple perspectives.
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I agree but he seems to be almost spot on so far for this spring…

Never said he’s perfect. He has made mistakes as have all.
 
Tanner said:
We need to stop listening to one man’s opinions and actually take into account the fact that it was a projection. Trey is an amazing forecaster, meteorologist, and person. I aspire to someone like him! But I wouldn’t want everyone looking at me and only me for the matter of telling you what I think is going to happen, I would want you to do your own observations and take in multiple perspectives.
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I also agree to this.

As such, I want to know what @Matt Grantham has to say about May, based on his extended-range tornado forecasting methodology (which accurately predicted the active patterns in mid-March and early April earlier this year).
 
My own prediction, just to throw my own opinion into the ring:

Not nearly as active as last May, but about average. I predict our days of potential higher-end outbreaks is essentially over for the year, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see some plains and mesoscale magic. I think the plains chasers will get some good quality chase days in this month, and I can plausibly see a sneaky event like 4/26/24 unfold.
 
ColdFront said:
My own prediction, just to throw my own opinion into the ring:

Not nearly as active as last May, but about average. I predict our days of potential higher-end outbreaks is essentially over for the year, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see some plains and mesoscale magic. I think the plains chasers will get some good quality chase days in this month, and I can plausibly see a sneaky event like 4/26/24 unfold.
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The long range models would like to argue against your projection of no more higher-end outbreaks. Classic trough ejection around the 13th-15th of May with plenty of compact features to it.
 
Kds86z said:
I’m no expert but I feel this May won’t be to active.
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Depends what areas you are talking about ….
ColdFront said:
My own prediction, just to throw my own opinion into the ring:

Not nearly as active as last May, but about average. I predict our days of potential higher-end outbreaks is essentially over for the year, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see some plains and mesoscale magic. I think the plains chasers will get some good quality chase days in this month, and I can plausibly see a sneaky event like 4/26/24 unfold.
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don’t forget. Got fall severe wx season still lol
 
Kds86z said:
I agree but he seems to be almost spot on so far for this spring…

Never said he’s perfect. He has made mistakes as have all.
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Nobody’s perfect. It’s definitely fair to say that he has. Others have been right too, however to what extent is justifiable in one’s eyes. You can be in a part of a state and feel like a season has been less activate than projected and in another part, it’s felt like hell.

Best approach to season projections and looking at how they played out is seeing what did happen vs. what was projected on a global teleconnection standpoint. That’s the beauty of research and science - we learn from each event, boom or Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.
 
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