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Severe Weather 2025

OH-IOan said:
Could 5/14 or 5/15 produce something? We’re about to be behind 2024 in terms of LSRs, I’m almost rooting for 2025 to have more given the lull in activity.
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It’s really hard to say at this juncture. The current pattern we are in is not very conducive to tornados at all, and that looks to switch next week per the ensembles. I’ll keep my own opinion on what I think will happen to myself until closer to the event.

You could see 3/14-15 was going to be a major one a little over a week in advance. This one hasn’t shown that same level yet models wise, But you don’t need a repeat of those two days to have a big outbreak. It’s not scientific at all but you can also gauge an event by how active this thread gets, and right now it’s a ghost town.
 
ColdFront said:
It’s really hard to say at this juncture. The current pattern we are in is not very conducive to tornados at all, and that looks to switch next week per the ensembles. I’ll keep my own opinion on what I think will happen to myself until closer to the event.

You could see 3/14-15 was going to be a major one a little over a week in advance. This one hasn’t shown that same level yet models wise, But you don’t need a repeat of those two days to have a big outbreak. It’s not scientific at all but you can also gauge an event by how active this thread gets, and right now it’s a ghost town.
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18z GFS came in swinging tonight. Next week's trough looks scary. Then, the one afterwards is really scary, but it's far enough out to the point where it could be in voodoo land, but I want to see it dissipate on the next run to be sure:

Next week (Wed 5/14-15):
Screenshot 2025-05-07 at 7.51.12 PM.png

Afterwards (5/16-18 timeframe):
Screenshot 2025-05-07 at 7.51.43 PM.png

(sorry for the ads near the bottom, forgot to cut those out)

The thing that really catches my eye with that second trough is 1) more zonal flow in the exit region, and 2) the fact that the trough from 5/14-15 is being modeled as getting lifted north to advect a ton of moisture into where it's impinging. That is quite spooky by itself. We'll have to wait and see though.
 
slenker said:
18z GFS came in swinging tonight. Next week's trough looks scary. Then, the one afterwards is really scary, but it's far enough out to the point where it could be in voodoo land, but I want to see it dissipate on the next run to be sure:

Next week (Wed 5/14-15):
View attachment 41040

Afterwards (5/16-18 timeframe):
View attachment 41041

(sorry for the ads near the bottom, forgot to cut those out)

The thing that really catches my eye with that second trough is 1) more zonal flow in the exit region, and 2) the fact that the trough from 5/14-15 is being modeled as getting lifted north to advect a ton of moisture into where it's impinging. That is quite spooky by itself. We'll have to wait and see though.
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First sounding is cherry picked as hell, and the second and third soundings were taken in the area of moisture you highlighted. Looks pretty dang spicy if the dew points and cap situation resolve.

1746667707192.png
1746667981718.png
1746668191180.png

The dryline looks well defined, but helicity could be another issue.

1746668429463.png

Am I missing anything?
 
Correct me if I'm wrong (or not seeing the full picture), but it looks like a region over Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma is the Spicy Zone Wednesday. Could be a classic Oklahoma outbreak if Dew points get a little higher. That's one of the bigger question marks with this whole set up. Definitely looking forward to the 00z GFS run


1746671913630.png1746671744203.png
1746672898410.png1746672041842.png

Illinois might get in a little on the action later in the day too.

1746673013207.png
 
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Grand Poo Bah said:
Interesting thing about Oklahoma and Arkansas is this is almost the exact same area 24 hours later on Thursday.

View attachment 41054View attachment 41055
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Just gonna torture yourself looking this far in advance..

lord of the rings falling GIF
 
Kds86z said:
Just gonna torture yourself looking this far in advance..
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It's peak 'nader season and I got the fever! Got carried away with the soundings for sure, but they just look so impressive across multiple states.

Edit:

Last sounding I promise lol. If Dew Points trend any higher in NE Texas they could have a major tornado problem on their hands. As of now it looks like a very large hail threat. The analog is showing 5 inches with a 90% match for severe hail!

1746682251684.png
 
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06z GFS is not messing around, arguably scarier than before. Absolute behemoth longwave ushers in and leads to a very widespread and lengthy significant severe weather episode from 5/15 to 5/21, where the threat even shifts to the Deep South at some point, then another bowling ball of a trough moves in and leads to another nasty plains event (although that’s in voodoo land). This is the exact type of signal you dread seeing 9/10 days out. Please don’t even come close to verifying, because if it’s even close then we’re gonna likely have some sort of significant severe weather somewhere in the US.

This gif goes from hour 129 (5/13) to hour ~280, near the end of the outlook cycle (5/21):
 

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slenker said:
06z GFS is not messing around, arguably scarier than before. Absolute behemoth longwave ushers in and leads to a very widespread and lengthy significant severe weather episode from 5/15 to 5/21, where the threat even shifts to the Deep South at some point, then another bowling ball of a trough moves in and leads to another nasty plains event (although that’s in voodoo land). This is the exact type of signal you dread seeing 9/10 days out. Please don’t even come close to verifying, because if it’s even close then we’re gonna likely have some sort of significant severe weather somewhere in the US.

This gif goes from hour 129 (5/13) to hour ~280, near the end of the outlook cycle (5/21):
Click to expand...
How does this compare to the 3/14-3/16 event, @slenker?
 
Atlantic said:
How does this compare to the 3/14-3/16 event, @slenker?
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I think it’s quite similar in some ways, but it isn’t quite the same. They both are smaller (still intense) troughs that transition into long waves, but as of right now the trough from 3/14-3/16 was 1) much more progressive, but 2) a much stronger trough with a more intense jet streak. We aren’t close enough to see specifics with moisture return and the exact geometry of the trough either, but anything with that general shape is worrisome as we get closer.

Overall the two big things that worry me about this one are the fact that it’s so slowly moving, and the flow in the exit region is very zonal as of right now, much more zonal than the trough from 3/14-16. However, the somewhat weaker jet streak and looks-to-be-slower translational speed of the jet streak in this trough is the only thing that isn’t overly impressive to me, at least not yet. More time is needed to see how this evolves, but I don’t like the look of it one bit.

Also, I’m not a MET so take what I say with a grain of salt. I want to hear others input who are more qualified than me.

EDIT: The jet streak when moving through the Deep South is very quick though - worth watching for sure. It will most certainly change though, as that’s near the end of the model cycle.
 
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slenker said:
06z GFS is not messing around, arguably scarier than before. Absolute behemoth longwave ushers in and leads to a very widespread and lengthy significant severe weather episode from 5/15 to 5/21, where the threat even shifts to the Deep South at some point, then another bowling ball of a trough moves in and leads to another nasty plains event (although that’s in voodoo land). This is the exact type of signal you dread seeing 9/10 days out. Please don’t even come close to verifying, because if it’s even close then we’re gonna likely have some sort of significant severe weather somewhere in the US.

This gif goes from hour 129 (5/13) to hour ~280, near the end of the outlook cycle (5/21):
Click to expand...
Looks like some significant issues in the mid south and Ohio valley.... Yikes
 
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