M. Grantham at KBMX doing a good job of foreshadowing of what may be down the road...
The potential for strong to severe storms may be increasing for
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as low amplitude shortwaves
in the northern and southern streams eject eastward across the
Plains. Currently it appears that these shortwaves will only
partially phase, but there is quite a bit of model variability
between the much more phased UKMET and the GFS. The ECMWF is
perhaps the middle ground. Significant CAPE is expected to surge
northward from the western Gulf into the Lower Mississippi Valley
ahead of the approaching front. The positive tilt nature of the
front suggests convection will not be pre-frontal and will be
generated by the front itself. The strongest instability to remain
to our west, but CAPE values around 1000 J/kg, as suggested by the
ECMWF, would support a potential for isolated damaging winds along
a line of storms. If this system becomes more phased as shown by
the UKMET, the severe weather threat would increase substantially.
A low confidence risk of severe storms will be placed in the HWO.
Dry and cooler weather should return for Thursday behind the
front, but there are signs that a much more ominous weather
pattern is brewing for Friday and especially toward the Day 10
time frame. Any system that moves across the CONUS in this low
amplitude pattern will have to be watched closely as high octane
air lurks across the Gulf of Mexico and Dixie.
The potential for strong to severe storms may be increasing for
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as low amplitude shortwaves
in the northern and southern streams eject eastward across the
Plains. Currently it appears that these shortwaves will only
partially phase, but there is quite a bit of model variability
between the much more phased UKMET and the GFS. The ECMWF is
perhaps the middle ground. Significant CAPE is expected to surge
northward from the western Gulf into the Lower Mississippi Valley
ahead of the approaching front. The positive tilt nature of the
front suggests convection will not be pre-frontal and will be
generated by the front itself. The strongest instability to remain
to our west, but CAPE values around 1000 J/kg, as suggested by the
ECMWF, would support a potential for isolated damaging winds along
a line of storms. If this system becomes more phased as shown by
the UKMET, the severe weather threat would increase substantially.
A low confidence risk of severe storms will be placed in the HWO.
Dry and cooler weather should return for Thursday behind the
front, but there are signs that a much more ominous weather
pattern is brewing for Friday and especially toward the Day 10
time frame. Any system that moves across the CONUS in this low
amplitude pattern will have to be watched closely as high octane
air lurks across the Gulf of Mexico and Dixie.