Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[Kds86z]

Yeah I’m not really seeing it either. The wind probs make sense but the Tor probs increase surprised me.

We’ll see.. anything can happen

 

[Clancy]

1730 D2 almost exactly the same, save for a small westward expansion of the Slight. Surprised at no higher probabilities for the winds, which look fairly substantial with the healthy MCS forecast across AL, but possibility for stronger tornado risk is mentioned.

...Eastern MS and LA...AL...
A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing along the cold front early
on Sunday where MUCAPE will be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Severe potential will be mitigated somewhat due to the relatively
warm profiles aloft, however, veering winds with height and around
50 kt at 850 mb may support embedded supercells within the line,
with both wind and brief tornado potential. Depending on the degree
of outflow/convective contamination early in the day, a slightly
better corridor of tornado threat could materialize.

 

[AJS]

A bit concerned about these storms further south. They are relatively on their own and are headed in my direction.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 39228
A bit concerned about these storms further south. They are relatively on their own and are headed in my direction.

Waiting for tornado watch to pop. These may have better chance for isolated then up near the mdt..

 

[RollTide18]

View attachment 39220
Yurp, they indeed went with a Moderate. Unsure why but ok ig.

I guess Mother Nature didn’t take too kindly to Ja Morant this week

 

[kcyalater]

doubt this series of risks at your own peril.

that atmosphere over nw MS and sw TN is primed.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I guess Mother Nature didn’t take too kindly to Ja Morant this week

Lol

 

[JPWX]

It's pretty obvious why you saw the increase in tornado probability along with Moderate Upgrade. Dewpoints are upper 60s/low 70s. Very favorable for tornadoes. Only cloud cover is over Northwest MS while rest of North MS is seeing sunshine galore with temperatures already pushing 80.

This is my last post on here for a while. Peace.

 

[kcyalater]

also first TOR on the board due west of memphis. there are some wild velocities in that bow.

 

[treypops]

This bowed line headed toward Memphis is gnarly

 

[Kds86z]

doubt this series of risks at your own peril.

that atmosphere over nw MS and sw TN is primed.

As you say that… tornado warning eastern AR

 

[snostorm21]

Hmm

 

[Kds86z]

It's pretty obvious why you saw the increase in tornado probability along with Moderate Upgrade. Dewpoints are upper 60s/low 70s. Very favorable for tornadoes. Only cloud cover is over Northwest MS while rest of North MS is seeing sunshine galore with temperatures already pushing 80.

This is my last post on here for a while. Peace.

Thank you and blessings..

 

[Tennie]

IIRC, that was also a notable failure mode for 5/20/2019.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Two tornado warnings west of Memphis now

 

[treypops]

I don't think those TOR warnings are tornadic. It's just insane winds.

 

[Kds86z]

IIRC, that was also a notable failure mode for 5/20/2019.

Not gonna lie… 5/20 popped into my head yesterday but I kept my mouth shut..

 

[UncleJuJu98]

PDS severe thunderstorm warning getting close to Memphis

 

[treypops]

PDS severe thunderstorm warning getting close to Memphis

It's hauling arse. 65 mph. A wall of straight line winds.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Another tornado warning, basically the leading edge of the bow echo is lined with tornado warnings.