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Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

Kds86z said:
Today will be much worse then yesterday
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Kds86z said:
supercell wise.
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Booya Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I wonder what the guys at SPC are seeing to do that?
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sounds like they are confident in at least one of two possible rounds of storms producing tornadoes across the moderate risk area:

"...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday
especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing
MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT.
A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock.
This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately
north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel
to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon,
potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale
Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has
been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential
semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its
south."

MD 411 explains the initial short-term risk for tornadoes:

Mesoscale Discussion 0411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...central Arkansas to southwest Tennessee and far
northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...

Valid 051636Z - 051830Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues.

SUMMARY...A focused severe wind threat is developing across central
Arkansas toward western Tennessee with the potential for winds in
excess of 80 mph.

DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment has developed along the frontal
zone/composite outflow in central Arkansas with a recent measured
wind gust of 58 knots at KORK at 1615 UTC. In addition, a well
organized rear-inflow jet is being sampled by the KLZK WSR-88D. The
airmass south of this boundary continues to destabilize with further
destabilization to 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE expected by early
afternoon. Expect this bow to traverse along this frontal/outflow
zone through the afternoon. In addition to current
radar/observational trends which support this corridor of a higher
wind threat, the 15Z WoFS also highlights this corridor early this
afternoon with 90th percentile wind gusts around 65 knots across
southwest Tennessee.

In addition to the severe wind threat (which will exist on both
sides of the boundary), a tornado threat will also exist south of
this boundary, although line orientation may not be as favorable
based on current WSR-88D depiction from KLZK. The greatest tornado
threat will likely exist along the boundary where low-level
vorticity will be enhanced.

..Bentley.. 04/05/2025
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Wind Driven Coconut said:
It’s been a long time since anyone here questioned an unexpected SPC upgrade ;)

Now we can see if someone else is Broyles level elite…
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It would be more concerning if it was Broyles lmao the radar is an absolute mess of disorganized convection all up and down the risk area. Lol

But I guess it hasn’t gotten to the main event yet.
 
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